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Do Voters Look to the Future?: Economics and Elections

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Argues in favor of a different model of voting behavior.
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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
...a thought-provoking argument that comprehensively surveys the theory and literature regarding the degree to which voters look to the past and future in making their decisions ... Lockerbie's work takes up a neglected subject and shows why it deserves more attention.— American Review of Politics

"...[Lockerbie's] volume adds to the mounting evidence that voters base their decisions more on concern about the future than on their reaction to what has already passed."— Political Science Quarterly

"This book deals with a very important subject within the economic voting literature: the significance of retrospective versus prospective judgments. It helps overcome the wrongful neglect of the prospective school."— Michael S. Lewis-Beck, coauthor of Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies"
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780791474822
  • Publisher: State University of New York Press
  • Publication date: 7/1/2009
  • Pages: 170
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Brad Lockerbie is Professor and Chair of Political Science at East Carolina University.

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Table of Contents

List of Illustrations

1. Introduction

2. Simple Economic Relationships

Appendix 2.1: Prospective Evaluations: Are They Partisan Rationalization?

3. Party Identification: Is It Changeable?

Is It Explicable?
Appendix 3.1: Instrumental Variables for PIDt21 (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)
Appendix 3.2: Party Identification as a Function of Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations with Actual Past Party Identification (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)
Appendix 3.3: Party Identification as a Function of Changes in Evaluations (3-Point and 7-Point Scales)

4. Presidential Elections: A More Comprehensive View

5. Congressional Elections: Yes, the Senate Too

6. Economics and Politics: Egocentric or Sociotropic?

Appendix 6.1: Retrospective Egocentric and Sociotropic Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992
Appendix 6.2: Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Items Predicting Political
Attitudes: 1992
Appendix 6.3: Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Economic Evaluations, Ideology, and Party Identification Predicting Political
Attitudes: 1992

7. Forecasting Elections

Appendix 7.1: Data and Sources of Data

8. Concluding Remarks


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