Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran: Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning [NOOK Book]

Overview


The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict versus the so-called Long War. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's investments in particular, RAND examined emerging domestic and regional nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries.
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Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran: Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning

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Overview


The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict versus the so-called Long War. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's investments in particular, RAND examined emerging domestic and regional nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833046727
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation, The
  • Publication date: 12/12/2008
  • Sold by: Barnes & Noble
  • Format: eBook
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 232
  • File size: 5 MB

Meet the Author

John Gordon IV (Currently enrolled in the Public Policy PhD program at George Mason University) is a RAND researcher.

Robert W. Button (Ph.D., Mathematics, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1975) is a RAND senior analyst.

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Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures ix

Tables xi

Summary xiii

Acknowledgments xxv

Abbreviations xxvii

Chapter One Introduction and Objectives 1

Introduction 1

Study Approach 1

Organization of This Monograph 4

Chapter Two Strategic Trends in the United States 5

Summary 5

Introduction 6

U.S. Demographic Trends 6

Gross Domestic Product 9

The Federal Budget 10

Federal Revenues 11

Federal Spending 11

Social Security 12

Medicare and Medicaid 13

Interest on the National Debt 15

Federal Spending 15

Discretionary Spending 16

Nondefense Discretionary Spending 17

Natural Disasters 17

Energy 20

Defense Spending 24

Conclusions 26

Chapter Three The United States' Near Abroad 29

The Current Situation 29

Future Trends and Possibilities in Northern South America 31

Future Trends and Possibilities in the Caribbean 32

An Overview of Future Trends in the Region 34

The Special Case of Mexico 35

Chapter Four Strategic Trends in the People's Republic of China 37

The Current Situation 37

China's Energy Future 39

Consumption Pattern and Energy Mix 39

China's Coal Industry 45

Macroeconomic Trends 46

GDP Forecasts 48

Obstacles to Future Growth 50

China: A High-Tech Economy? 56

Demographic Trends and Related Problems 59

Aging and Social Security 59

Gender Imbalance 64

Floating Population and Urbanization 64

Public Health 66

Environmental Degradation 69

Water Scarcity and Pollution 70

Desertification 74

Air Pollution 76

Enforcement 79

Supply Trends 79

Conclusion 80

Chapter Five China's Near Abroad 87

The Current Situation 87

Future Trends and Possibilities in the West 90

Future Trends and Possibilities in the South91

Future Trends and Possibilities in the East and Northeast 92

Taiwan 92

North Korea 93

Japan 95

Chapter Six Strategic Trends in Iran 97

The Current Situation 97

Economic Trends 98

Rentierism 99

Unemployment and Underemployment 103

Demographic Pressures 105

Energy Production and Consumption Patterns 107

Nuclear Energy 109

Sociopolitical Trends 112

Environmental Trends 118

Conclusion 121

Chapter Seven Iran's Near Abroad 125

The Current Situation 125

Future Trends and Possibilities in Russian and Chinese Support for Iran 127

Future Trends and Possibilities in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council States 128

Future Trends and Possibilities in Turkey and the Kurdish Independence Movement 129

Future Trends and Possibilities in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria 130

Summary 131

Chapter Eight Japan's Near Abroad 133

The Current Situation 133

Current State of U.S.-Japanese Relations 134

Japan's Current Relations with Its Asian Neighbors 136

Future Trends and Possibilities 139

Chapter Nine Russia's Near Abroad 143

The Current Situation 143

Current Russian-European Relations 149

Current Sino-Russian Relations 151

Current Russian-Iranian Relations 152

Current Russian-Japanese Relations 154

Future Trends and Possibilities 155

Chapter Ten Conclusions 159

Major Future Domestic and Near-Abroad Challenges 159

The United States 159

China 160

Iran 162

Common Challenges 163

Aging 163

Pollution 163

Energy 164

Implications 165

For the United States 165

For the U.S. Navy 166

Investment Implications for the U.S. Navy 168

Final Thoughts 170

Appendixes

A Comparisons 171

B China's Coal Future 177

Bibliography 191

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