East-West Migration: The Alternatives

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This sequel to Reform in Eastern Europe reports on one of the most pressing issues for countries with economies in transition and for their neighbors. The economic migration of Eastern Europeans to the West looms as potentially one of the great population movement of modern times; the authors clearly delineate the scope of the migration and the possible course it may take. They argue that substantial Eastern immigration cannot be averted but that free trade and capital flows should be able to stabilize the ...
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Overview

This sequel to Reform in Eastern Europe reports on one of the most pressing issues for countries with economies in transition and for their neighbors. The economic migration of Eastern Europeans to the West looms as potentially one of the great population movement of modern times; the authors clearly delineate the scope of the migration and the possible course it may take. They argue that substantial Eastern immigration cannot be averted but that free trade and capital flows should be able to stabilize the situation in the long run. As economists who have been deeply involved in the recent upheavals in the East, the authors are in a position to take a well-informed stance on the economic and social dislocations that are occurring. They look at migration statistics from previous eras to predict both the level of migration from Eastern Europe and its long-run and short-run effects on the countries involved. For the short run they recommend that western Europe begin to admit primary migrants and that the US increase its immigration quotas. They conclude with a detailed discussion of "the best defense of all," economic progress and lay out the necessary conditions for free trade, investment, and aid.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780262121682
  • Publisher: MIT Press
  • Publication date: 9/23/1992
  • Pages: 104
  • Product dimensions: 21.00 (w) x 8.00 (h) x 1.00 (d)

Meet the Author

Olivier Blanchard is Economic Counselor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of Macroeconomics, among other books, and coauthor of Lectures on Macroeconomics (MIT Press). David Romer is Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of Advanced Macroeconomics. Michael Spence, co-recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, is Professor Emeritus of Management at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business and Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. He served as Chairman of the Commission on Growth and Development from 2006 to 2010 (the life of the commission). He is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World. Joseph Stiglitz, co-recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, is University Professor at Columbia University. He served as Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers in the Clinton administration, and from 1997 to 2000 as World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President in Development Economics. He is the author of Freefall: Free Markets and the Sinking of the World Economy, Globalization and Its Discontents, and other books.

Paul Krugman is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University and a New York Times columnist. He was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008.

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Table of Contents

Preface
Acknowledgments
1 Overview 1
The Alternatives 3
The Pressure to Migrate 5
The Response 7
2 Migration: The Pressure to Move 11
The Setting 11
Earlier Migrations 14
What Determines Migration? 20
Prospects for Desired Migration 23
Time Pattern of Desired Migration 25
Can Immigration Be Controlled? 28
3 Migration: The Likely Effects 33
Long-Run Effects 33
Externality Issues 37
Short-Run Absorption 42
Effects in the United States 44
The Return of the French Algerians 46
Postwar Germany 47
Can the West Cope? 49
4 Free Trade with the West 51
Prospects for Growth in Trade 52
Trade as a Substitute for Migration 53
Efficiency Differences and Factor Mobility 56
Dynamic and Macroeconomic Gains from Trade 58
Prospects 60
5 Aid and Capital Flows 63
Necessary Conditions for Investment 63
External Finance as a Lever for Reform 66
Forms and Conditions of Aid 68
Who Should Pay and How? 69
Consolidating the Debt 70
Appendix 1. Economics of Migration: Further Evidence 73
Appendix 2. Can Emigration Hurt the Home Country? 77
Notes 83
References 89
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