Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominanceby Arvind Subramanian
In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic
In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine?
Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
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- 6.00(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.60(d)
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Meet the Author
Arvind Subramanian, an Indian national, is senior fellow jointly at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development. He was assistant director in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. During his career at the Fund, he worked on trade, development, Africa, India, and the Middle East. He served at the GATT (1988-92) during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government (1999-2000) and at Johns Hopkins' School for Advanced International Studies (2008-10).
He has written on growth, trade, development, institutions, aid, oil, India, Africa, the WTO, and intellectual property. He has published widely in academic and other journals, including the American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Foreign Affairs, World Economy, and Economic and Political Weekly. He has also published or been cited in leading magazines and newspapers, including the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and New York Review of Books. He has been interviewed on PBS' Charlie Rose Show and is a columnist for India's leading financial daily, Business Standard.
He advises the Indian government in different capacities, including as a member of the Finance Minister's Expert Group on the G-20. His book, India's Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation, was published in 2008 by Oxford University Press. His book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance," is forthcoming fall 2011. He is coeditor of Efficiency, Equity, and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millennium with Roger Porter and Pierre Sauvé (Brookings/Harvard University Press, 2002).
He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, Delhi; his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India; and his M.Phil and DPhil from the University of Oxford, UK.
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