Economic Forecasting and Policy

Overview

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

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Economic Forecasting and Policy

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Overview

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"Good economic forecasters are pragmatists. They combine intuition, based on experience, with time series evidence and theory. Forget theory, and you lose internal consistency and become a bad story teller. Be a slave to theory, and you miss important developments because they do not fit. These skills are not taught in graduate school (they should). But they are taught in this remarkable book. Read it before you start forecasting."—Olivier J. Blanchard, Economics Professor, MIT and Chief Economist, IMF

"This book reminded me almost effortlessly of the complications and pitfalls in the 'dark art' of forecasting I once had to learn the hard way. Its comprehensive and thoroughly up-to-date approach gave me insights I either never had or were simply not available at the time. It is clearly written, logically ordered, and reliant no more than necessary on mathematical techniques. It also draws key lessons from the 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed."—William R. White, Chairman of the OECD's Economic and Development Review Committee and Former Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, BIS

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780230243217
  • Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Publication date: 8/30/2011
  • Edition description: Second Edition
  • Edition number: 2
  • Pages: 400
  • Product dimensions: 6.40 (w) x 9.20 (h) x 1.30 (d)

Meet the Author

NICOLAS CARNOT is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies in the French Treasury. He has held several positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the IMF, where he has been involved in macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy advice.  
 
VINCENT KOEN is a Senior Official in the OECD Economics Department and was long one of the main authors of its Economic Outlook. He has also held positions at the IMF and the French Central Bank. He authored a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT. 
 
BRUNO TISSOT is Adviser to the General Manager of the BIS, where he previously was the Secretary of the Markets Committee of Central Banks. Before joining the BIS, he ran the International Economic Synthesis Division at the French Ministry of Finance. With Nicolas Carnot, he co-authored La Prévision Économique (published by Economica), which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

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Table of Contents

Introduction
Overview 
Business Cycle Analysis 
Real Sector Building Blocks 
Financial Sector Dynamics 
Public Finances 
Medium and Long-Run Projections 
Risks and Accuracy 
Policymaking and Forecasts
Appendix: A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions
Annex I: The Data
Annex II: Time Series Methods
Annex III: Macroeconomic Models
Bibliography
Index

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