Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula

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Overview

The North Korean economy cannot sustain its population. Absent fundamental economic reforms, it will never be able to do so. Hence North Korea will require sizable external support for the foreseeable future. South Korea, China, Japan, and the United States have been willing to provide this support because they fear a collapse in the North or, even worse, a lashing out that would unleash war on the peninsula and put millions of people in Asia in jeopardy -- including thousands of US troops stationed in South ...
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Overview

The North Korean economy cannot sustain its population. Absent fundamental economic reforms, it will never be able to do so. Hence North Korea will require sizable external support for the foreseeable future. South Korea, China, Japan, and the United States have been willing to provide this support because they fear a collapse in the North or, even worse, a lashing out that would unleash war on the peninsula and put millions of people in Asia in jeopardy -- including thousands of US troops stationed in South Korea and Japan. The status quo is thus closer to extortion than charity.

In this volume, a diverse group of contributors analyze prospective developments on the Korean peninsula. The authors first address the three broad strategic possibilities of war, collapse, and gradual adjustment. Four immediate policy issues are then considered: the current economic conditions and policies in the North, the food crisis, the nuclear energy/nuclear weapons issue, and the possibility of large-scale refugee flows. Finally, the volume considers several longer-run issues concerning the inevitable integration of the peninsula: the potential relevance of the German experience, the costs and benefits of economic unification between North and South Korea, and the possible role of the international financial institutions in funding the new arrangement. The volume concludes with recommendations for policymakers, especially in the United States and South Korea, from the preceding analyses.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780881322552
  • Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Publication date: 1/15/1998
  • Series: Special Report Series
  • Pages: 274
  • Product dimensions: 6.08 (w) x 9.08 (h) x 0.55 (d)

Table of Contents

Preface vii
1 Introduction 1
I Three Basic Scenarios
2 The Likelihood and Implications of a North Korean Attack on the South 9
3 North Korea: All Roads Lead to Collapse--All the More Reason to Engage Pyongyang 27
4 Managing Integration on the Korean Peninsula: The Positive and Normative Case for Gradualism with or without Integration 39
II Immediate Issues
5 The Food Economy: The Catalyst for Collapse? 53
6 North Korean Energy Sector: Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005 77
7 Refugee Issues Relating to Three Scenarios for the Future of the Korean Peninsula 119
III (Slightly) Longer Run Economic Issues
8 The Current North Korean Economy 137
9 Korean Unification: Lessons From Germany 165
10 Calibrating the Costs (and Benefits) of Unification 191
11 Thinking about the World Bank and North Korea 201
IV Implications for Domestic Policy
12 US Leadership in the Rebuilding of the North Korean Economy 223
13 South Korea: Preparations Awaiting Unification--The Political Components 237
14 Preparing for the Economic Integration of Two Koreas: Policy Challenges to South Korea 251
Conference Participants 273
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  • Anonymous

    Posted November 5, 2000

    the usual suspects...NOT!

    This must have been an interesting conference: a multinational cast of the usual Korea-watcher suspects (Scott Snyder, Kyongman Jeon, Aidan foster-Carter et al.) joined by some functional area specialists (Jeffrey Pilkington, Danny Leipziger et al.) to add spice. Among the highlights: Heather Smith's dissection of the food issue, David Steinberg's thoughtful reflections on South Korean politics, and Holger Wolf's demolition of the myths of German unification. Anthony Michell contributes a heterox view of the North Korean economy. His treatment may not be persuasive, but a welcome relief from the usual recitation of BOK figures.

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