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Elicitation Of Expert Opinions For Uncertainty And Risks
     

Elicitation Of Expert Opinions For Uncertainty And Risks

by Bilal M. Ayyub
 

ISBN-10: 0849310873

ISBN-13: 9780849310874

Pub. Date: 09/05/2000

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates t hose uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the autho r, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications

Overview

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates t hose uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the autho r, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of ex pert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780849310874
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Publication date:
09/05/2000
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
328
Product dimensions:
6.14(w) x 9.21(h) x 0.81(d)

Table of Contents

Knowledge and Ignorance
Information Abundance and Ignorance
The Nature of Knowledge
Cognition and Cognitive Science
Time and its Asymmetry
Defining Ignorance in the Context of Knowledge
Exercise Problems
Information-Based System Definition
Introduction
System Definition Models
Hierarchical Definitions of Systems
Models for Ignorance and Uncertainty Types
Systems Complexity
Exercise Problems
Experts, Opinions, and Elicitation Methods
Introduction
Experts, and Expert Opinions
Historical Background
Scientific Heuristics
Rational Consensus
Elicitation Methods
Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing
Methods of Social Research
Focus Groups
Exercise Problems
Expressing and Modeling Expert Opinions
Introduction
Set Theory
Monotone Measures
Exercise Problems
Consensus and Aggregating Expert Opinions
Introduction
Methods of Scoring of Expert Opinions
Uncertainty Measures
Combining Expert Opinions
Exercise Problems
Guidance on Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Introduction and Terminology
Classification of Issues, Study Levels, Experts, and Process Outcomes
Process Definition
Need Identification for Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Selection of Study Level and Study Leader
Selection of Peer Reviewers and Experts
Identification, Selection, and Development of Technical Issues
Elicitation of Opinions
Documentation and Communication
Exercise Problems
Applications of Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Introduction
Assessment of Occurrence Probabilities
Economic Consequences of Floods
References
Indexes

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