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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide

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Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic ...
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Overview

Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

Expert judgment is used in response to an enormous diversity of technical problems. The expert is often required to perform a role when other sources, such as measurement, observations, experimentation, or simulation are unavailable or not widely agreed upon. However, many problems are faced in translating expert judgment into reliable and unbiased solutions. With the correct elicitation and analysis techniques, Meyer and Booker show that using expert judgment can be infinitely more reliable and efficient.

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Editorial Reviews

Booknews
In an unabridged republication of the 1991 edition published by Academic Press Limited, London, statisticians at the Los Alamos National Laboratory provide lay readers a guide on expert judgement, reprinted now because of new applications in creating knowledge systems and in combination with the methodology PREDICT (Performance and Reliability Evaluation from Diverse Information, Combination, and Tracking). They describe a shortcut to creating knowledge systems, which they describe as electronic repositories for capturing, accessing, and updating expertise. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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Product Details

Table of Contents

Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition; Preface; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Examples; Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction; 2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment; 3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias; Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions; 5. Refining the Questions; 6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts; 7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation; 8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation; 9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel; 10. Conducting the Elicitation; Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data; 12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses; 13. Understanding the Data Base Structure; 14. Correlation and Bias Detection; 15. Model Formation; 16. Combining Responses_Aggregation; 17. Characterizing Uncertainties; 18. Making Inferences; Appendix A. SAATY; Appendix B. MCBETA; Appendix C. EMPIRICAL; Appendix D. BOOT; Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms; References; Index.
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