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Economists insist that recovery is at hand, yet unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to sink, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits.
Richard Heinberg’s latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging, highly readable style, it shows why growth is being blocked by three factors:
These converging limits will force us to re-evaluate cherished economic theories and to reinvent money and commerce.
The End of Growth describes what policy makers, communities, and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth’s budget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than continuing to pursue the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding GDP.
Richard Heinberg is the author of nine previous books, including The Party's Over, Peak Everything, and Blackout. A senior fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Heinberg is one of the world's foremost peak oil educators and an effective communicator of the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels.
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction: The New Normal 1
Why Is Growth Ending? 2
The End of Growth Should Come As No Surprise 4
Why Is Growth So Important? 6
But Isn't Growth Normal? 10
The Simple Math of Compounded Growth 12
The Peak Oil Scenario 15
From Scary Theory to Scarier Reality 18
Bursting Bubbles 19
What Comes After Growth? 20
A Guide to the Book 22
1 The Great Balloon Race 27
Economic History in Ten Minutes 28
Economics for the Hurried 34
20th-century Economics 38
Business Cycles, Interest Rates, and Central Banks 41
Mad Money 46
I Owe You 51
2 The Sound of Air Escaping 55
Houses of Cards 56
Setting the Stage: 1970 to 2001 57
Shadow Banks and the Housing Bubble 61
What Goes Up 63
The Mother of All Manias 70
Limits to Debt 72
All Loaned Up and Nowhere to Go 81
Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks 83
Actions by Other Nations and Their Central Banks 91
After All the Arrows have Flown 92
Deflation or Inflation? 96
The Bridge to Nowhere 99
3 Earth's Limits: Why Growth Won't Return 105
Oil 106
Other Energy Sources 113
How Markets May Respond to Resource Scarcity: The Goldilocks Syndrome 118
Water 124
Food 129
Metals and Other Minerals 138
Climate Change, Pollution, Accidents, Environmental Decline, and Natural Disasters 145
4 Won't Innovation, Substitution, and Efficiency Keep Us Growing? 155
Substitutes Forever 156
Energy Efficiency to the Rescue 164
Business Development: The Cavalry's on the Way 174
Moore's or Murphy's Law? 177
Specialization and Globalization: Genies at Our Command 181
5 Shrinking Pie: Competition and Relative Growth in a Finite World 189
The China Bubble 190
CurrencyWars 202
Post-Growth Geopolitics 208
Population Stress: Old vs. Young on a Full Planet 212
The End of "Development"? 217
The Post-Growth Struggle Between Rich and Poor 224
6 Managing Contraction, Redefining Progress 231
The Default Scenario 233
Haircutsfor All... or Free Money? 236
Post-Growth Money 241
Post-Growth Economics 246
Gross National Happiness 255
Our Problems Are Resolvable In Principle 259
7 Life After Growth 267
Setting Priorities 268
Transition Towns 270
Common Security Clubs 273
Putting the New Economy on the Map 275
What Might a Sustainable Society Look Like? 280
Perspective 284
Notes 287
Index 311
About the Author 321
ConBrio
Posted March 2, 2012
Much of the content here is from the headlines - but put together in a broad, meaningful display. Many ideas for solving the problems that face this planet have been collected from hordes of superb people deeply committed to future generations, and creating a new world without fossil fuels but with many solutions. What I find to treasure the most is the extensive information supplied, including the author's netsite, and the websites of many of his sources, as well as additional references. The over-all helpful tone impressed me greatly - for if you have children, or grandchildren, you need to be knowledgeable .... and prepare.
2 out of 2 people found this review helpful.
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Posted March 25, 2013
BORING and REPETITIVE!
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Posted October 9, 2011
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Overview
Economists insist that recovery is at hand, yet unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to sink, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits.
Richard Heinberg’s latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, ...