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This book provides a system framework to observe, detect and monitor changes in geophysical time series for the purpose of managing natural — mostly water — resources. The institutional aspects of risk are considered to be an integral part of the management system. Original and novel features include the definitions of institutions, the development of forecasting and control schemes under non-steady inputs and the point of view of practitioners, all embedded in a common ...
This book provides a system framework to observe, detect and monitor changes in geophysical time series for the purpose of managing natural — mostly water — resources. The institutional aspects of risk are considered to be an integral part of the management system. Original and novel features include the definitions of institutions, the development of forecasting and control schemes under non-steady inputs and the point of view of practitioners, all embedded in a common framework for reliability and risk analysis.
The first three chapters provide the model-based systems design and control framework, and then the methodology for physical and stochastic analysis of the changing forcing function and hydrometeorological input series. The next two chapters deal with consequences of climate change, in particular, its potential effect on river flows, sea level rise, water quality and extreme floods respectively. The last two chapters develop engineering decisions, policy considerations and case examples. Whereas most reliability and risk analysis books have dealt with steady-state conditions, we are specifically focusing on the difficult problems of observations and management to be done in a non-stationary environment.
Preface. 1: System Framework. Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions: a framework for reliability and risk; L. Duckstein, E. Parent. Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions: State of the art in systems modeling; E. Parent, L. Duckstein. Design and control of water systems under unsteady conditions; R. Soncini-Sessa. Institutional analysis and water resources management; M. Waterstone. 2: The Changing Input Function. Numerical models for the simulation of natural and anthropogenic climate variations; J.C. André. Estimation of local climatic factors under climate change; I. Bogardi, I. Matyasovszky, A. Bardossy, L. Duckstein. Synenergistic effect of dam and forecast on flood probabilities: a Bayesian analysis; K.S. Kelly, R. Krzysztofowicz. 3: Stochastic Analysis under Nonstationary Conditions. Some reliability measures for nonstationary Markov chains; I. Abi-Zeid, B. Bobée. Statistical detection of changes in geophysical series; J. Bernier. Risk analysis of hydrologic data: review and new developments concerning the Halphen distributions; B. Bobée, P. Rasmussen, L. Perreault, F. Ashkar. 4: Regional Consequences of Climatic Change. Estimation of extreme regional precipitation under climate change; A. Bardossy. Detection and modeling of the impact of climatic change on river flows; G. Cavadias. Sea level rise problems; T. Pohlmann, J. Sündermann. Climatic changes during the 20th century on the Laurentian Great Lakes and their impacts on hydrologic regime; M. Slivitzky, L. Mathier. Sediment yield and pollution from small watersheds under changing climatic conditions; I. Bofgardi, J. Ganoulis, L. Duckstein, I. Matyasovszky. Water quality in coastal zones under variable climatic conditions; J. Ganoulis, L. Duckstein, I. Bogardi, I. Matyasovszky. Report of Panel 1: Global change, a statistical myth? B. Bobée, G. Cavadias (rapporteurs). 5: Engineering Decisions under Uncertainty and Risk. Inference and decision under near ignorance conditions; W.F. Caselton, W. Luo. Design and control of water systems in presence of inflow scenarios; R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Karbowski. Risk of extreme flood losses under uncertain physical conditions; J.H. Lambert, D. Li, Y.Y. Haimes. Sea level rise: A probabilistic design problem; J.K. Vrijling. Quantitative analysis of uncertainties in water resources. Application for predicting the effects of changes; J. Bernier. Strategic decisions under nonstationary conditions: a stopping-control paradigm; R. Krzysztofowicz. Report of Panel 2: When and how should we act? M. Waterstone (rapporteur). 6: Policy and Case Studies. Managing water resources for adaptation to climate change; E.Z. Stakhiv. The effects of climate change on storm surges; E.J. Plate. Evaluating climate change impacts on the management of the Great Lakes; P. Chao, B.F. Hobbs, E.Z. Stakhiv. Water management in the Neste system; P. Hurand. Planning and management of water resources in the southwest of France in a dynamic physical, social and economic environment; V. Hammel. Balancing reservoir management and water conservation: Application to hydropower and irrigation; F. Fourcade, F. Quentin. Report of Panel 3: To act or not to act? E.Z. Stakhiv (rapporteur). Index.