Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology: New Mathematical Approaches for their Handling

by Gyïrgy Bardossy, Jïnos Fodor

Overview

High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9783642058332
Publisher:	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publication date:	12/03/2010
Edition description:	Softcover reprint of hardcover 1st ed. 2004
Pages:	221
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 9.25(h) x 0.24(d)

Table of Contents

1 Introduction.- 2 Review of the Main Uncertainties and Risks in Geology.- 3 Probabilistic Approaches for Handling Uncertainties.- 4 Review of Uncertainty Oriented Mathematical Methods.- 5 Test Calculations and Other Applications.- 6 Conclusions.- References.

Editorial Reviews

From the reviews:

"The last decade has seen the emergence of a large body of literature devoted to the quantification, analysis, and management of risks and uncertainties. As its title indicates, the present book aims to cover this important topic not only from the geological, but also the mathematical point of view. … this book provides a clear overview of several methods for the analysis of uncertainties, risk, and natural hazards in geology with a strong emphasis on fuzzy set theory." (Pierre Goovaerts, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol. 33 (1), 2006)

"The authors have undertaken the task of evaluating uncertainty and risks in geology. … I have to complement the authors for making the readers aware of possible uses and misuses of math in geology. … The book provides a good summary of existing uncertainty-oriented methods. … I recommend the book to geoscientists who want to learn basic mathematics of uncertainty-oriented methods." (Marek Kacewicz, Computer & Geosciences, Vol. 32, 2006)

"The authors express the view that geological investigations are characterised by particularly high uncertainties leading to high risk decisions … . This book is an interesting read for geologists dealing with the impact of uncertainty in geological problems … . it is valuable in providing a clear introduction to the use of Interval Analysis and Fuzzy Numbers to describe uncertainty in geological problems." (Neil Schofield, TAG, Issue 142, 2007)

From the Publisher