Exchange Rate Determination: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate Forecasting

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Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination?written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world?examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates.

This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and ...

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Overview

Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination—written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world—examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates.

This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.

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Product Details

Meet the Author

Michael R. Rosenberg is managing director and head of global foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank. His articles regularly appear in Institutional Investor, Global Investor,and other top financial publications.

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Table of Contents

The Guide to Exchange-Rate Determination
Pt. 1 Exchange-Rate Determination in the Short Run
Ch. 1 Short-Run Forecasting Tools 3
Pt. 2 Exchange-Rate Determination in the Long Run
Ch. 2 Purchasing Power Parity 43
Ch. 3 The Macroeconomic-Balance Approach to Long-Run Exchange-Rate Determination 61
Ch. 4 Long-Term Cycles in Exchange Rates 85
Pt. 3 Exchange-Rate Determination in the Medium Run
Ch. 5 International Parity Conditions 109
Ch. 6 Current-Account Imbalances and the Determination of Exchange Rates 127
Ch. 7 Capital Flows and Exchange Rates 143
Ch. 8 The Mundell-Fleming Model of Exchange-Rate Determination 159
Ch. 9 The Monetary Approach to Exchange-Rate Determination 171
Ch. 10 Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange-Rate Determination 181
Ch. 11 Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates 191
Ch. 12 Economic Growth and Exchange Rates 197
Ch. 13 Central Bank Intervention 205
Pt. 4 Anticipating Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Ch. 14 Leading Indicators of Currency Crises 217
Ch. 15 Devising an Early Warning System to Anticipate Currency Crises 249
References 255
Index 261
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