Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns

Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns

by Alfred Rappaport, Michael J. Mauboussin
     
 

ISBN-10: 159139127X

ISBN-13: 9781591391272

Pub. Date: 12/26/2002

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press


Expectations Investing offers a unique and powerful alternative for identifying value-price gaps. Rappaport and Mauboussin provide everything the reader needs to utilize the discounted cash flow model successfully. And they add an important twist: they suggest that rather than forecasting cash flows, investors should begin by estimating the expectations…  See more details below

Overview


Expectations Investing offers a unique and powerful alternative for identifying value-price gaps. Rappaport and Mauboussin provide everything the reader needs to utilize the discounted cash flow model successfully. And they add an important twist: they suggest that rather than forecasting cash flows, investors should begin by estimating the expectations embedded in a company's stock price. An investor who has a fix on the market's expectations can then assess the likelihood of expectations revisions. To help investors anticipate such revisions, Rappaport and Mauboussin introduce an "expectations infrastructure" framework for tracing the process of value creation from the basic economic forces that shape a company's performance to the resulting impact on sales, costs, and investment. Investors who use Expectations Investing will have a fundamentally new way to evaluate all stocks, setting them on the path to success. Managers will be able to use the book to devise, adjust, and communicate their company's strategy in light of shareholder expectations.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9781591391272
Publisher:
Harvard Business Review Press
Publication date:
12/26/2002
Pages:
256
Sales rank:
369,587
Product dimensions:
6.50(w) x 9.02(h) x 0.76(d)

Table of Contents

Greater Expectations: How Investing Differs from Art Collecting (Peter L. Bernstein)
Preface
Acknowledgments
1. The Case for Expectations Investing
Active Management: Challenge and Opportunity
The Expectations Investing Process
The Twilight of Traditional Analysis
Essential Ideas
Appendix: Earnings Growth and Value Creation
Part I Gathering the Tools
2. How the Market Values Stocks
The Right Expectations
Shareholder Value Road Map
Free Cash Flow
Cost of Capital
Forecast Period
From Corporate Value to Shareholder Value
Summary Illustration
Essential Ideas
Appendix: Estimating Residual Value
The Perpetuity Method
The Perpetuity-with-Inflation Method
3. The Expectations Infrastructure
The Expectations Infrastructure
Not All Expectations Revisions Are Equal
Essential Ideas
4. Analyzing Competitive Strategy
The Dual Uses of Competitive Strategy Analysis
Historical Analysis
Competitive Strategy Frameworks
Essential Ideas
Part II Implementing the Process
5. How to Estimate Price-Implied Expectations
Reading Expectations
Gateway Case Study
Why Revisit Expectations?
Essential Ideas
Appendix: Employee Stock Options and Expectations Investing
Valuing ESOs
6. Identifying Expectations Opportunities
Searching for Expectations Opportunities
Pitfalls to Avoid
Gateway Case Study
Essential Ideas
7. Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Expected-Value Analysis
Gateway Case Study
The Buy Decision
The Sell Decision
The Role of Taxes
Essential Ideas
8. Beyond Discounted Cash Flow
Real Options
When to Use Real-Options Analysis in Expectations Investing
The Value of Real Options in Amazon.com
Reflexivity
Essential Ideas
9. Across the Economic Landscape
Business Categories
Business Categories and the Value Factors
Essential Ideas
Part III Reading Corporate Signals
10. Mergers and Acquisitions
How Acquiring Companies Add Value
Evaluating Synergies
What to Do When a Deal Is Announced
Essential Ideas
11. Share Buybacks
The Golden Rule of Share Buybacks
Four Popular Motivations for Share Buybacks
Essential Ideas
12. Incentive Compensation
CEO and Other Corporate-Level Executives
Operating-Unit Executives
Middle Managers and Frontline Employees
Essential Ideas
Notes
Index
About the Authors
Forum at the Sante Fe Institute

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