The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction / Edition 1

The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction / Edition 1

by Keith B. Payne
     
 

ISBN-10: 0813190150

ISBN-13: 9780813190150

Pub. Date: 10/02/2009

Publisher: University Press of Kentucky

In 1938, Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain hoped that a policy of appeasement would satisfy Adolf Hitler's territorial appetite and structured British policy accordingly. This plan was a failure, chiefly because Hitler was not a statesman who would ultimately conform to familiar norms. Chamberlain's policy was doomed because he had greatly misjudged Hitler's basic

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Overview

In 1938, Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain hoped that a policy of appeasement would satisfy Adolf Hitler's territorial appetite and structured British policy accordingly. This plan was a failure, chiefly because Hitler was not a statesman who would ultimately conform to familiar norms. Chamberlain's policy was doomed because he had greatly misjudged Hitler's basic beliefs and thus his behavior. U.S. Cold War nuclear deterrence policy was similarly based on the confident but questionable assumption that Soviet leaders would be rational by Washington's standards; they would behave reasonably when presented with nuclear threats. The United States assumed that any sane challenger would be deterred from severe provocations because not to do so would be foolish. Keith B. Payne addresses the question of whether this line of reasoning is adequate for the post-Cold War period. By analyzing past situations and a plausible future scenario, a U.S.-Chinese crisis over Taiwan, he proposes that American policymakers move away from the assumption that all our opponents are comfortably predictable by the standards of our own culture. In order to avoid unexpected and possibly disastrous failures of deterrence, he argues, we should closely examine particular opponents' culture and beliefs in order to better anticipate their likely responses to U.S. deterrence threats.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780813190150
Publisher:
University Press of Kentucky
Publication date:
10/02/2009
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
242
Sales rank:
774,241
Product dimensions:
6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.55(d)

Table of Contents

Preface
Ch. 1Introduction1
Ch. 2Cold War Deterrence Theory and Practice17
Ch. 3Why the Cold War Deterrence Framework is Inadequate39
Ch. 4Cold War Deterrence Thought in the Post-Cold War World79
Ch. 5The Dilemma of Popular Usage and a New Direction97
Ch. 6Testing the Deterrence Framework115
Ch. 7The New Deterrence Framework, Evidence and Misplaced Confidence169
Ch. 8Lessons of This Case Study185
Selected Works Cited197
Index221

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