Figuring Out the Doha Round

Overview

The Doha Round marked its eighth birthday in November 2009, making it the longest running multilateral trade negotiation in the postwar era. Doha participants continue to disagree about prospective liberalization of agriculture and manufactures and have barely begun to consider reductions in barriers to trade in services. Negotiators have missed every deadline to conclude the talks, leading some to question the viability of the entire venture. After nearly nine years of inconclusive meetings, the trade talks are ...

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Overview

The Doha Round marked its eighth birthday in November 2009, making it the longest running multilateral trade negotiation in the postwar era. Doha participants continue to disagree about prospective liberalization of agriculture and manufactures and have barely begun to consider reductions in barriers to trade in services. Negotiators have missed every deadline to conclude the talks, leading some to question the viability of the entire venture. After nearly nine years of inconclusive meetings, the trade talks are at a tipping point: A global trade deal is still possible with renewed political commitment to trade reform, but continued drift could result in the first outright failure of a multilateral trade round in the postwar era.

This policy analysis shows that the Doha Round can still be successfully concluded with a concerted push by the major trading nations. Contrary to the Doha doomsayers, the potential gains from proposals now on the table are significant, albeit not sufficient to close a deal. The authors estimate the trade gains and GDP gains from a prospective Doha deal that "tops up" existing commitments to liberalize agriculture, manufactures, and services. They also suggest what each of the major trading nations needs to do to ensure the successful completion of a Doha package that is both ambitious and balanced between the interests of developed and developing countries.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780881325034
  • Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Publication date: 6/1/2010
  • Pages: 220
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.70 (d)

Meet the Author

Gary Clyde Hufbauer is the author, coauthor, or editor of Global Warming and the World Trading System (2009), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd ed. (2008), and NAFTA Revisited (2005). He has been the Peterson Institute's Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992 and was the Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University (1985-92). He has written extensively on international trade, investment, and tax issues. Jeffrey J. Schott is the author, coauthor, or editor of several books on trade, including Aligning NAFTA with Climate Change (forthcoming), Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations (2010), Trade Relations Between Colombia and the United States (2006), NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges (2005)—a "Choice Outstanding Academic Title" in 2006, and Free Trade Agreements: US Strategies and Priorities (2004). He is a senior fellow at PIIE and he is also a member of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy of the US Department of State.

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Table of Contents

Preface vii

Acknowledgments xi

1 Overview 1

United States 8

European Union 9

Japan 11

Brazil, India, and China 12

Comparing Gains for Developed and Developing Countries 13

Appendix 1A 14

2 Agriculture and Nonagricultural Market Access 17

Results for Agriculture 18

Results for Nonagricultural Market Access 30

Appendix 2A 37

3 Topping up the Doha Package 81

Services 81

Chemicals 86

Information Technology and Electronics/Electrical Goods 90

Environmental Goods 96

Trade Facilitation 101

4 Conclusion 105

Appendix A Methodology for Reciprocity Measure and GDP Gains 109

Appendix B Services 117

Appendix C Chemicals 129

Appendix D Information Technology and Electronics/Electrical Goods 139

Appendix E Environmental Goods 177

Appendix F Trade Facilitation 189

Appendix G Measuring Trade Distortions 205

References 209

Index 215

Tables

Table 1.1 Trade gains for sample countries 6

Table 1.2 Total trade gains, with exports to the world 8

Table 1.3 Impact of trade gains on GDP 10

Table 1A.1 Comparison between sample and G-20 countries, 2008 14

Table 2.1 Tariffs in agriculture 19

Table 2.2 Bound and applied tariff rates in agriculture imposed by Brazil, China, and India on imports from the group of 15 developing countries in the sample 24

Table 2.3 Gains in agriculture and NAMA expressed in terms of the reciprocity measure 26

Table 2.4 Tariffs in nonagricultural market access 30

Table 2.5 Bound and applied tariff rates in NAMA imposed by Brazil, China, and India on imports from the group of 15 developing countries in the sample 33

Table 2.6 GDP impacts of trade gains in agriculture and NAMA 35

Table 2A.1 Weighted average of bound duties, pre- and post-Doha 37

Table 2A.2 Cuts in bound tariffs 41

Table 2A.3 Bound versus applied "water levels," pre- and post-Doha 43

Table 2A.4 Trade-weighted average bound, MFN, and applied tariff rates, 2001, 2006, and post-Doha Round 47

Table 2A.5 Weighted average of applied tariffs, pre- and post-Doha 51

Table 2A.6 Cuts in applied tariffs 55

Table 2A.7 Reciprocity measure gains from domestic support concessions 57

Table 2A.8 Reciprocity measure gains from concessions in export subsidies 59

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