A First Course in Probability / Edition 8

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Overview

A First Course in Probability, Eighth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
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Editorial Reviews

Booknews
A book/disk introduction to probability for students in mathematics, engineering, and the sciences (including the social sciences and management science) who understand elementary calculus. Presents the mathematics of probability theory as well as many examples of applications, covering combinatorial analysis, axioms of probability theory, conditional probability, random variables, expected value, and major theoretical results of probability. Other subjects include Markov chains, information and coding theory, and simulation. Includes chapter summaries, exercises, and answers. This fifth edition notes optional material, and updates examples to be more accessible to students. Chapter exercises are reorganized to present mechanical problems before theoretical exercises. The disk, new to this edition, allows students to perform calculations and simulations. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780136033134
  • Publisher: Pearson
  • Publication date: 11/26/2008
  • Edition description: Older Edition
  • Edition number: 8
  • Pages: 552
  • Sales rank: 326,362
  • Product dimensions: 7.90 (w) x 10.00 (h) x 1.00 (d)

Meet the Author

Sheldon M. Ross is a professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at the University of Southern California. He received his Ph.D. in statistics at Stanford University in 1968. He has published many technical articles and textbooks in the areas of statistics and applied probability. Among his texts are A First Course in Probability, Introduction to Probability Models, Stochastic Processes, and Introductory Statistics. Professor Ross is the founding and continuing editor of the journal Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, the Advisory Editor for International Journal of Quality Technology and Quantitative Management, and an Editorial Board Member of the Journal of Bond Trading and Management. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and a recipient of the Humboldt US Senior Scientist Award.
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Table of Contents

1. Combinatorial Analysis

2. Axioms of Probability

3. Conditional Probability and Independence

4. Random Variables

5. Continuous Random Variables

6. Jointly Distributed Random Variables

7. Properties of Expectation

8. Limit Theorems

9. Additional Topics in Probability

10. Simulation

Appendix A. Answers to Selected Problems

Appendix B. Solutions to Self-Test Problems and Exercises

Index

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Preface

"We see that the theory of probability is at bottom only common sense reduced to calculation; it makes us appreciate with exactitude what reasonable minds feel by a sort of instinct, often without being able to account for it .... It is remarkable that this science, which originated in the consideration of games of chance, should have become the most important object of human knowledge .... The most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability." So said the famous French mathematician and astronomer (the "Newton of France") Pierre Simon, Marquis de Laplace. Although many people might feel that the famous marquis, who was also one of the great contributors to the development of probability, might have exaggerated somewhat, it is nevertheless true that probability theory has become a tool of fundamental importance to nearly all scientists, engineers, medical practitioners, jurists, and industrialists. In fact, the enlightened individual had learned to ask not "Is it so?" but rather "What is the probability that it is so?"

This book is intended as an elementary introduction to the theory of probability for students in mathematics, statistics, engineering, and the sciences (including computer science, the social sciences and management science) who possess the prerequisite knowledge of elementary calculus. It attempts to present not only the mathematics of probability theory, but also, through numerous examples, the many diverse possible applications of this subject.

In Chapter 1 we present the basic principles of combinatorial analysis, which are most useful in computing probabilities.

In Chapter 2 we consider theaxioms of probability theory and show how they can be applied to compute various probabilities of interest.

Chapter 3 deals with the extremely important subjects of conditional probability and independence of events. By a series of examples we illustrate how conditional probabilities come into play not only when some partial information is available, but also as a tool to enable us to compute probabilities more easily, even when no partial information is present. This extremely important technique of obtaining probabilities by "conditioning" reappears in Chapter 7, where we use it to obtain expectations.

In Chapters 4, 5, and 6 we introduce the concept of random variables. Discrete random variables are dealt with in Chapter 4, continuous random variables in Chapter 5, and jointly distributed random variables in Chapter 6. The important concepts of the expected value and the variance of a random variable are introduced in Chapters 4 and 5: These quantities are then determined for many of the common types of random variables.

Additional properties of the expected value are considered in Chapter 7. Many examples illustrating the usefulness of the result that the expected value of a sum of random variables is equal to the sum of their expected values are presented. Sections on conditional expectation, including its use in prediction, and moment generating functions are contained in this chapter. In addition, the final section introduces the multi-variate normal distribution and presents a simple proof concerning the joint distribution of the sample mean and sample variance of a sample from a normal distribution.

In Chapter 8 we present the major theoretical results of probability theory. In particular, we prove the strong law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Our proof of the strong law is a relatively simple one which assumes that the random variables have a finite fourth moment, and our proof of the central limit theorem assumes Levy's continuity theorem. Also in this chapter we present such probability inequalities as Markov's inequality, Chebyshev's inequality, and Chernoff bounds. The final section of Chapter 8 gives a bound on the error involved when a probability concerning a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables is approximated by the corresponding probability for a Poisson random variable having the same expected value.

Chapter 9 presents some additional topics, such as Markov chains, the Poisson process, and an introduction to information and coding theory, and Chapter 10 considers simulation.

The sixth edition continues the evolution and fine tuning of the text. There are many new exercises and examples. Among the latter are examples on utility (Example 4c of Chapter 4), on normal approximations (Example 4i of Chapter 5), on applying the lognormal distribution to finance (Example 3d of Chapter 6), and on coupon collecting with general collection probabilities (Example 2v of Chapter 7). There are also new optional subsections in Chapter 7 dealing with the probabilistic method (Subsection 7.2.1), and with the maximum-minimums identity (Subsection 7.2.2).

As in the previous edition, three sets of exercises are given at the end of each chapter. They are designated as Problems, Theoretical Exercises, and Self-Test Problems and Exercises. This last set of exercises, for which complete solutions appear in Appendix B, is designed to help students test their comprehension and study for exams.

Using the website students will be able to perform calculations and simulations quickly and easily in six key areas:

  • Three of the modules derive probabilities for, respectively, binomial, Poisson, and normal random variables.
  • Another module illustrates the central limit theorem. It considers random variables that take on one of the values 0,1, 2, 3, 4 and allows the user to enter the probabilities for these values along with a number n. The module then plots the probability mass function of the sum of n independent random variables of this type. By increasing n one can "see" the mass function converge to the shape of a normal density function.
  • The other two modules illustrate the strong law of large numbers. Again the user enters probabilities for the five possible values of the random variable along with an integer n. The program then uses random numbers to simulate n random variables having the prescribed distribution. The modules graph the number of times each outcome occurs along with the average of all outcomes. The modules differ in how they graph the results of the trials.
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Customer Reviews

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Sort by: Showing all of 10 Customer Reviews
  • Anonymous

    Posted February 20, 2006

    Beginners Beware

    This book should definitely not be titled, 'A First Course in Probability.' In 1999, I graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with a bachelor of science degree in electrical engineering. As part of my curriculum, I took a course in probability theory and earned a grade of A+. I am presently at Rutgers working towards my graduate degree in Mathematics, but they would not accept my transfer credit for the probability course, and so I am taking a probability class for the second time. We happen to be using the book by Ross, and I must say, good luck if you are not an expert in the field of probability. Even with my previous mastery of the subject, I can barely follow some of the examples in the book. This has got to be one of the worst introductory texts that I have ever seen.

    1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted December 23, 2008

    Well Done!

    I just finished taking a probability course that used Sheldon Ross' book, and I was very appreciative of the detailed examples and explanations. No short changing on ink and space in this textbook - and this was very good! Also, his solid blend of basic example problems leading to the more complex was helpful in building one's foundation as well as leading to the bigger picture. I must say that I also found having most answers in the back of the book, as well as a self-test section for each chapter with detailed answers very useful in practicing, gaining insight and understanding the topic of probability. I have since bought other Sheldon Ross books for my bookshelf.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted January 3, 2007

    Solid Book

    I used this book in Intro to Probability at South Florida. The book covers all the necessary material, and provides good examples and good problems.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted November 29, 2004

    An intro for the mathematically inclined

    I found this book very useful in my probability course but the title is misleading if you expect it to supply details or spoon fed answers. It is written as an intro to the subject for math students, not for those who need these skills for another field and thus the theory, although relatively simple, is presented in a manner that assumes the reader has prior experience with proofs. The examples are extremely important and instructional so do not overlook them!

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted December 5, 2003

    HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE

    I bought this book as a supplement to the book I was using in my probability class. Although this book did provide SOME, NOT MUCH, but SOME further insight it still lacked proper structure. The book spends much time on theoretical proofs with too little time on applications of the theory. To title the book a 'First Course in Probability' is a fallacy. There are a plethora of assumptions. For example, the book will say...given function xyz, we conclude 123, with out going through the hundreds of steps in between. This is not a book for beginners, nor does it seem like a book for a first course in probability. With the lack for better words, I think the book is grotesquely confusing and absolutely HORRIBLE!! The 1 Star rating doesn't even do the book justice. I would give it 0 Stars, in fact, if there were negative stars, I would provide appropriate deductions.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted May 20, 2003

    A Comprehensive, Advanced Course in Probability.

    I had this as a college text book at the senior level in Industrial Engineering. If you have a strong math background it's great. Not recommended for math neophytes. Excellent, if you're ready for it.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted December 13, 2002

    NOT a first course in probability

    The book is very difficult to learn from. The text is very dense and the concepts are presented almost exclusively using mathematical proofs with almost no attempt to also provide intuitive explanations. The worst feature is that the proofs and examples, which are the main tools the book uses to teach, skip many steps that the book claims are trivial or obvious. Those steps may be obvious to people who know the subject well, but they weren't obvious to me. In fact, I spent more time tracking down the skipped steps than I did learning the basic material. Another bad feature is that some very important concepts are only discussed in the examples, with no indication in the general text that they're buried close by! In conclusion, read the book as a concise review only after you've already mastered probablility using other sources.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted January 13, 2002

    horrible, for beginners

    This book is the worst introductory book I have ever read. I am a student studying for Course 1 in the actuary field. This is one of the books on the approved study list of the SOA/CAS and we used it in my Introduction to Probability Class. The majority of people in the class never took a class in probability and this book was over everyone's head. The book gave few examples and the study questions at the end of each chapter were so difficult that the teacher stopped assigning the class homework. The book is just not for beginners. It is for those that have a good background in probability and want to go deeper into the field.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted June 4, 2009

    No text was provided for this review.

  • Anonymous

    Posted January 21, 2009

    No text was provided for this review.

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