Forecasting and Management of Technology / Edition 1

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Overview

Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
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Editorial Reviews

Booknews
A textbook on technology forecasting for business and engineering students. Only basic mathematics is required, the examples either being qualitative or using simple arithmetic. Provides a basic framework, describes several forecasting methods, and introduces the assessment and evaluation of technological change. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR booknews.com
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Product Details

Meet the Author

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-HulmanInstitute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the pasteditor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal andthe past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studiesat Rose-Hulman.

SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy fromthe Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science,technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. Heis currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in theDepartment of Technology, Policy, and Management at DelftUniversity of Technology.

ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technologyopportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic datasources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holdsan MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both fromUCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development forSearch Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.

THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the EngineeringManagement Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on athree-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a140-person network management systems business.

FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost atGeorge Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department ofIndustrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technologyin Atlanta, Georgia.

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Table of Contents

OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES.
Management, Technology, and the Future.
Principles of Sociotechnical Change.
Technology Planning.
Forecasting.
Managing the Forecasting Project.
METHODS.
General Methodological Issues.
The Stimulation of Creativity.
Monitoring.
Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation.
Extrapolating Technological Trends.
Expert Opinion.
Simulation.
Scenarios.
Economic Forecasting and Analysis.
ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE.
Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology.
Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies.
Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis.
Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts.
Managing the Present from the Future.
Appendices.
Bibliography.
Index.
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