Forecasting and Management of Technology / Edition 1

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Overview

Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
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Editorial Reviews

Booknews
A textbook on technology forecasting for business and engineering students. Only basic mathematics is required, the examples either being qualitative or using simple arithmetic. Provides a basic framework, describes several forecasting methods, and introduces the assessment and evaluation of technological change. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR booknews.com
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Product Details

Meet the Author

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies at Rose-Hulman.

SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science, technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft University of Technology.

ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technology opportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic data sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.

THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a 140-person network management systems business.

FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia.

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Table of Contents

OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES.
Management, Technology, and the Future.
Principles of Sociotechnical Change.
Technology Planning.
Forecasting.
Managing the Forecasting Project.
METHODS.
General Methodological Issues.
The Stimulation of Creativity.
Monitoring.
Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation.
Extrapolating Technological Trends.
Expert Opinion.
Simulation.
Scenarios.
Economic Forecasting and Analysis.
ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE.
Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology.
Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies.
Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis.
Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts.
Managing the Present from the Future.
Appendices.
Bibliography.
Index.
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