Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles / Edition 1

Hardcover (Print)
Buy New
Buy New from BN.com
$62.44
Used and New from Other Sellers
Used and New from Other Sellers
from $57.00
Usually ships in 1-2 business days
(Save 32%)
Other sellers (Hardcover)
  • All (11) from $57.00   
  • New (6) from $59.85   
  • Used (5) from $57.00   

Overview

Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Our understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein’s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to asses, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability, and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century’s most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles—the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles—including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory. With this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book’s comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America’s economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history—in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques—if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability. No forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.

Read More Show Less

Editorial Reviews

Booknews
Chronicles the development of methods of forecasting economic cycles and their financial impact. Describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and discusses the similarities and differences between the growth and business cycle. Explains the essential features of the five types of economic cycles and their critical reception among economists. Covers unicausal theories, Keynesian concepts, and the new classical macroeconomics. For investors, traders, and policymakers. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Read More Show Less

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780471845447
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 2/21/1994
  • Series: Wiley Finance Series, #49
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 544
  • Product dimensions: 1.19 (w) x 6.14 (h) x 9.21 (d)

Meet the Author

About the Authors MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA is Vice President and Economist at Mitsubishi Bank in New York. Previously, he worked as an economist at Paine Webber, Chemical Bank, and Merrill Lynch. He regularly writes for Cycles, the magazine of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. His earlier work on industry cycles earned him the National Association of Business Economists' A.G. Abramson award for an "outstanding contribution to the professional literature in the field of business economics." PHILIP A. KLEIN is Professor of Economics at Pennsylvania State University and is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. He has consulted on business cycle indicators for OECD, the EEC, and the World Bank. He has written widely on business cycles and has worked for many years with Geoffrey H. Moore. He is a Research Associate at the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

Read More Show Less

Table of Contents

CYCLE TYPES AND THEORY.

The Nature of Economic Cycles.

Business Cycle Theory.

MEASUREMENT METHODS.

Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Cycles.

ECONOMIC HISTORY.

U.S.

Business Cycle History.

APPLICATION OF CYCLE TECHNIQUES.

Industry Cycles.

Regional Business Cycles.

International Business Cycles.

The Inflation Cycle.

Financial Cycles.

Stock Market Cycles.

CONCLUSION.

The Future of the Business Cycle—Alive and Well butDifferent.

Appendices.

Notes.

Index.

Read More Show Less

Customer Reviews

Be the first to write a review
( 0 )
Rating Distribution

5 Star

(0)

4 Star

(0)

3 Star

(0)

2 Star

(0)

1 Star

(0)

Your Rating:

Your Name: Create a Pen Name or

Barnes & Noble.com Review Rules

Our reader reviews allow you to share your comments on titles you liked, or didn't, with others. By submitting an online review, you are representing to Barnes & Noble.com that all information contained in your review is original and accurate in all respects, and that the submission of such content by you and the posting of such content by Barnes & Noble.com does not and will not violate the rights of any third party. Please follow the rules below to help ensure that your review can be posted.

Reviews by Our Customers Under the Age of 13

We highly value and respect everyone's opinion concerning the titles we offer. However, we cannot allow persons under the age of 13 to have accounts at BN.com or to post customer reviews. Please see our Terms of Use for more details.

What to exclude from your review:

Please do not write about reviews, commentary, or information posted on the product page. If you see any errors in the information on the product page, please send us an email.

Reviews should not contain any of the following:

  • - HTML tags, profanity, obscenities, vulgarities, or comments that defame anyone
  • - Time-sensitive information such as tour dates, signings, lectures, etc.
  • - Single-word reviews. Other people will read your review to discover why you liked or didn't like the title. Be descriptive.
  • - Comments focusing on the author or that may ruin the ending for others
  • - Phone numbers, addresses, URLs
  • - Pricing and availability information or alternative ordering information
  • - Advertisements or commercial solicitation

Reminder:

  • - By submitting a review, you grant to Barnes & Noble.com and its sublicensees the royalty-free, perpetual, irrevocable right and license to use the review in accordance with the Barnes & Noble.com Terms of Use.
  • - Barnes & Noble.com reserves the right not to post any review -- particularly those that do not follow the terms and conditions of these Rules. Barnes & Noble.com also reserves the right to remove any review at any time without notice.
  • - See Terms of Use for other conditions and disclaimers.
Search for Products You'd Like to Recommend

Recommend other products that relate to your review. Just search for them below and share!

Create a Pen Name

Your Pen Name is your unique identity on BN.com. It will appear on the reviews you write and other website activities. Your Pen Name cannot be edited, changed or deleted once submitted.

 
Your Pen Name can be any combination of alphanumeric characters (plus - and _), and must be at least two characters long.

Continue Anonymously

    If you find inappropriate content, please report it to Barnes & Noble
    Why is this product inappropriate?
    Comments (optional)