Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles / Edition 1

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Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Our understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein’s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to asses, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability, and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century’s most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles—the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles—including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory. With this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book’s comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America’s economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history—in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques—if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability. No forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.

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Editorial Reviews

Chronicles the development of methods of forecasting economic cycles and their financial impact. Describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and discusses the similarities and differences between the growth and business cycle. Explains the essential features of the five types of economic cycles and their critical reception among economists. Covers unicausal theories, Keynesian concepts, and the new classical macroeconomics. For investors, traders, and policymakers. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780471845447
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 2/21/1994
  • Series: Wiley Finance Series, #49
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 544
  • Product dimensions: 1.19 (w) x 6.14 (h) x 9.21 (d)

Meet the Author

About the Authors MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA is Vice President and Economist at Mitsubishi Bank in New York. Previously, he worked as an economist at Paine Webber, Chemical Bank, and Merrill Lynch. He regularly writes for Cycles, the magazine of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. His earlier work on industry cycles earned him the National Association of Business Economists' A.G. Abramson award for an "outstanding contribution to the professional literature in the field of business economics." PHILIP A. KLEIN is Professor of Economics at Pennsylvania State University and is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. He has consulted on business cycle indicators for OECD, the EEC, and the World Bank. He has written widely on business cycles and has worked for many years with Geoffrey H. Moore. He is a Research Associate at the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

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Table of Contents


The Nature of Economic Cycles.

Business Cycle Theory.


Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Cycles.



Business Cycle History.


Industry Cycles.

Regional Business Cycles.

International Business Cycles.

The Inflation Cycle.

Financial Cycles.

Stock Market Cycles.


The Future of the Business Cycle—Alive and Well butDifferent.




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