Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: Volume 2 A Comparative Perspective

Overview

In 2007, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies engaged a group of leading scholars and practitioners in a two-year research project, with a mandate to combine cutting-edge social science theory and country/area studies expertise for the purpose of forecasting proliferation developments in twelve key states-both "the usual suspects" and some states under the nonproliferation radar.

The output from that ...

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Overview

In 2007, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies engaged a group of leading scholars and practitioners in a two-year research project, with a mandate to combine cutting-edge social science theory and country/area studies expertise for the purpose of forecasting proliferation developments in twelve key states-both "the usual suspects" and some states under the nonproliferation radar.

The output from that project has been gathered into two separate books-one theoretical and one applied-so that policy makers, analysts, researchers, and students may use them together or separately depending on their aims.

Volume 2,A Comparative Perspective, provides the most comprehensive and authoritative projections of nuclear proliferation over the next decade and offers a range of practical nonproliferation measures. The authors address a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so, and the potential for one state's proliferation behavior to impact on that of other states. In addition, authors address the most effective policy tools available for impeding nuclear weapons spread. Although this volume is not the first effort to look systematically and comparatively at nuclear decision-making, it is unique in its combination of future orientation, comparative perspective, and emphasis on harnessing the insights from social science theory and country case studies to aid policy makers in forecasting nuclear proliferation developments.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"Students, academics, and, yes, practitioners will find much to admire in the analysis contained in both volumes . . . The two volumes add to a rich qualitative literature on proliferation, while applying rigorous quantitative analysis to proliferation cases. The contributing factors for proliferation are widely acknowledged and include domestic drivers, economic and security concerns, as well as regime and leadership types . . . The two-volume set on Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century is helpful in many valuable ways. There are sound analytical reasons for concluding that, despite the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, the sky is not falling, nor is it likely to fall over the next decade."—Michael Krepon, Nonproliferation Review

"This impressive—nearly 800 pages—collective study aims at taking a fresh look at the causes of nuclear proliferation, with the goal of enhancing the ability of analysts and policymakers to forecast its future and improve its prevention. It effectively combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, and includes a systematic review of the literature, from the early studies of proliferation dynamics of the 1960s to the latest statistical analyses of the past decade, as well as a range of case studies that goes beyond the 'usual suspects' to include Australia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia."—Bruno Tertrais, Survival

"This volume contains 12 case studies and offers many insights into the decision-making processes in the countries studied. It will be invaluable to those interested in proliferation analysis, and to students and researchers."—T.V. Paul, James McGill Professor of International Relations, McGill University

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780804769716
  • Publisher: Stanford University Press
  • Publication date: 8/17/2010
  • Pages: 488
  • Product dimensions: 6.10 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 1.10 (d)

Meet the Author

William C. Potter is Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments

PART I INTRODUCTION

1 An Introduction to Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar 3

PART II MIDDLE EAST

2 Will Egypt Seek Nuclear Weapons? An Assessment of Motivations, Constraints, Consequences, and Policy Options Jim Walsh Walsh, Jim 13

3 Pride and Prejudice: Understanding Iran's Nuclear Program Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar 42

4 Saudi Petro-Nukes? Riyadh's Nuclear Intentions and Regime Survival Strategies Ibrahim At-Marashi At-Marashi, Ibrahim 76

5 The Syrian Nuclear Puzzle Deborah R. Berman Berman, Deborah R. 100

PART III EAST ASIA

6 The Perils of Prediction: Japan's Once and Future Nuclear Status Etel Solingen Solingen, Etel 131

7 South Korean Nuclear Decision Making Scott Snyder Snyder, Scott 158

8 Taiwan and Nuclear Weaponization: Incentives versus Disincentives Jing-Dong Yuan Yuan, Jing-Dong 182

PART IV EUROPE

9 Nuclear Weapons in the Balkans: Why Yugoslavia Tried and Serbia Will Not Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar 205

10 Turkey in Transition: Toward or Away from Nuclear Weapons? Jessica C. Varnum Varnum, Jessica C. 229

11 Ukraine: A Postnuclear Country Nikolai Sokov Sokov, Nikolai 255

PART V OTHER REGIONS

12 Australia: A Potential Future Nuclear Proliferator? John Simpson Simpson, John 285

13 From Pariah to Nuclear Poster Boy: How Plausible Is a Reversal? Thomas Maettig Maettig, Thomas 302

PART VI CONCLUSION

14 In Search of Proliferation Trends and Tendencies Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar 337

Notes 357

Contributors 441

Index 447

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