Forecasting Technological Innovation / Edition 1

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The Seminar on which this book is based, held within the framework of the well-known 'Eurocourses' of the Joint Research Centre of the Commission of the European Communities, emphasized the relation between technological forecasting and industrial innovation: national and corporate strategies aiming at the latter for the sake of productivity and competitivity should build upon the former.

The book, like the Seminar, consists of three parts. Part I deals with the innovation processes and models and tackles some forecasting methodologies, as those based upon economic driving forces and technological competition. Part II is a review of prospected innovation in the short term in key generic technologies. Part III emphasizes the role in the innovation process of various innovation practitioners and their need for or practice of technological forecasting.

The various papers have been contributed by senior academic and research scientists (Part I) and senior industrialists (Parts II and III). The Editor, an electrical and nuclear engineer, is currently senior adviser at the recently created Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint Research Centre of the CEC.

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Editorial Reviews

Based on 18 lectures given during a Eurocourse at Ispra, Italy, October 1990, deals with the relationship between technological forecasting and industrial innovation, arguing that national and corporate strategies for the latter should be based on the former. Discusses the fundamentals and methodologies, and presents case studies of industries such as materials, telecommunications, and biotechnology, and of specific companies. No index. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780792314332
  • Publisher: Springer Netherlands
  • Publication date: 9/15/1991
  • Series: Eurocourses: Technological Innovation Series, #1
  • Edition description: 1991
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 320
  • Product dimensions: 0.88 (w) x 9.21 (h) x 6.14 (d)

Table of Contents

Editor's foreword
Pt. I Fundamentals & Methodologies
1 The innovation process: analysis, driving forces, obstacles, assessment 1
2 Foresight: a policy experiment in the Netherlands 25
3 Forecasting the strategic impact of technological innovation on competitive dynamics in industries 41
4 Modeling innovation diffusion 55
5 Economic aspects of innovation diffusion 79
6 The revival of mature industries through new technologies 91
7 Market penetration forecasting methodologies for new technologies and new products 107
Pt. II Sectoral Case Studies
8 Forecasting technological innovation: the case of advanced materials 129
9 Forecasting innovation in the machinery and automation sector 145
10 Characteristics and trends of innovation in electronics and information technology 157
11 Forecasting innovations in telecommunications 181
12 Technological innovation in transport 201
13 Technological innovation from biotechnology 221
14 The Ispra Mark BA process, an example of innovative process development from E.C. research 239
Pt. III Some Actors in the Innovation Process
15 Innovation management in a medium-sized company 253
16 The project Industrial Innovation: a Dutch example of innovation stimulation at national level 263
17 Some implications of economies of scale, learning curves and market share for the innovation process and how the Community programmes VALUE & SPRINT may stimulate it 281
18 The role of Contract Research Organizations 295
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