Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets


In recent years, traders have turned to the foreign exchangemarket expecting to capture substantial profits. While the highavailability of leverage within this arena can improve your chancesof making money, ultimately the success of your endeavors dependsupon how well you understand and operate within this market. Nobodyknows this better than author Ed Ponsi. As a professional traderand leading educator of traders, Ponsi has developed a provenapproach to trading today's forex market, and now, with ForexPatterns ...

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In recent years, traders have turned to the foreign exchangemarket expecting to capture substantial profits. While the highavailability of leverage within this arena can improve your chancesof making money, ultimately the success of your endeavors dependsupon how well you understand and operate within this market. Nobodyknows this better than author Ed Ponsi. As a professional traderand leading educator of traders, Ponsi has developed a provenapproach to trading today's forex market, and now, with ForexPatterns and Probabilities, he wants to share it with you.

While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shyaway from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides youwith real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about thespecific mechanics of currency trading that will allow you to takeadvantage of both trending and range-bound markets.

Written in a straightforward and accessible style, ForexPatterns and Probabilities will help you make the most of your timein this market. You'll be introduced to a variety of elements thatare essential to forex trading success and discover the best waysto enter, exit, and manage trades. Dozens of chart examples andexplanations will guide you each step of the way and allow you to"look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work athis craft.

Divided into four comprehensive parts, this detailed guide:

  • Explains the playing field of the forex market, using powerfulmetaphors that relate trading scenarios to situations in everydaylife
  • Outlines several specific trading strategies—including theFX-Ed Trend Technique—designed for trending markets
  • Delves into a variety of non-trending tradingtechniques—from the volatility-based Squeeze Play to the hedgefund–inspired Interest Rate Edge—which are all based onunique market tendencies
  • Offers an insider's view on how to emulate the behavioralpatterns of successful professional traders—and how to escapethe mindset of the amateur
  • And much more

Today's forex market contains some of the most profitabletrading opportunities in the world. With the practical strategiesand trading methodologies found in Forex Patterns and Probabilitiesyou can uncover these opportunities and achieve long-term financialsuccess along the way.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470097298
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 7/27/2007
  • Series: Wiley Trading Series, #299
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 272
  • Sales rank: 1,397,611
  • Product dimensions: 6.46 (w) x 9.13 (h) x 0.98 (d)

Meet the Author

Ed Ponsi is the President of and is the former chief trading instructor for Forex Capital Markets. He is an experienced professional trader and money manager who has advised hedge funds, institutional traders, and individuals of all levels of skill and experience. Ponsi is featured on the DVD series, Forex Trading with Ed Ponsi. He is a dynamic public speaker who has appeared on numerous television and radio programs, and is a frequent guest lecturer at trading conventions and seminars around the world.

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Table of Contents



About the Author.


Chapter 1. Getting Started In Forex.

From Stocks to Forex.

Getting to Wall Street.

Welcome to the Jungle.

Football and Forex.

Stock Market Headaches.

Welcome to Forex.

A New Beginning.

Chapter 2. All About Forex .

The Canadian Dollar and the U.S. Dollar.

The Euro and the U.S. Dollar.

Trading Terminology.

An Easy Way to Understand the Exchange Rate.

Chapter 3. Questions and Answers.

Why Does the Big Money Trade Forex?

Why is Forex Suddenly So Popular?

How Do Traders Make Money in the Forex Market?

Why Do Currencies Trade in Pairs?

How Can I Trade Two Currencies at One Time?

How is 24-Hour-Per-Day Trading Possible?

How is the Trading Day Structured?

Greenwich Mean Time.

Chapter 4. Technical Analysis and the Forex Market.

The Theory behind Technical Analysis.

Statistical Survey.

Fear of the Unknown.

Trading Patterns and Technical Indicators.

The Psychology behind the Market.

Moving Beyond Technical Analysis.


Proper Order.

Fibonacci Techniques.

Chapter 5. Things You Need to Know Before TradingForex.

The “Triple Threat” Trader.

Gaining Experience.

Which Pair to Trade?

Commodity Currencies.

Don’t Limit Yourself.

Trading and Karma.



Chapter 6. Understanding Trends and Tendencies.

Trading Conditions.

The Importance of Maintaining Objectivity.

Begin with a Tendency.

Putting the Trend to Work.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.

Take Me to the River.

How to Determine If the Market is Trending.

Chapter 7. The Anatomy of a Trend.

Why Trends Form.

Don’t Fight the Trend.

Chapter 8. Forex Multiple Time Frame Strategy.

Why Does It Work?

Combining Fibonacci and Trend.

Overbought Does Not Equal “Sell”.

Picking Tops and Bottoms.

The Entry Signal.

Placing the Stop.

Getting Out.

Welcome to the Real World.

Tweaking the Exits.

Executing the Plan.

Second Guessing.

Bringing It Home.

The Devil’s Advocate.

When to Stay Out.

Reloading the Trade.

Fantasy vs. Reality.

Phantom Signal.

Temporary Success and Failure.

The Stop Run.

Chapter 9. The FX-Ed Trend Technique.

Trends Are Self-Sustaining.

Difference of Opinion.

Big Money at Work.

The Common Denominator.

Long or Short.

Identifying the Trend.

Filtering the Trend.

The Catalyst.

Placing the Stop.

Volatility Stop.

Comparing Apples to Apples.

ATR Calculation.

The Entry.

The Stop.

The Trade.

Don’t Fish For Minnows.

Back To the Trade.


The News vs. the Trend.

Appearances Can Be Deceiving.

More Than One Chance.

Partial Exit Exercise.

Discretionary and Strategic Exits.

Faulty Wiring.

Partial Exit Technique.


Important Points to Consider.

Final Thoughts.


Chapter 10. The Ultimate Indicator.

The Price is the Key.

Why Support Becomes Resistance.

The Pleasure Principle and Trading.

Price Action.

Don’t Stand in Front of a Freight Train.

Chapter 11. Keys to Intraday Breakouts.

Ascending and Descending Triangles.

Trend Filter.

Time of Day Filter.


Chapter 12. Flags and Pennants.



Filtering Entries.


Chapter 13. The Squeeze Play.

The Cycle of Volatility.

Perception Moves the Market.

Volatility Breakout Strategy.

Chapter 14. The Round Trip.

Why Round Numbers Capture Our Attention.

Why Round Numbers Are Effective.

Round Numbers and Forex.

The First Bounce Is the Best Bounce.

Using the Moving Average.

The Strategy in Action.

Chapter 15. The Interest Rate Edge.

Think Like the Big Boys.

Interest Rate Differentials.

Here’s How It Works.

Changing Differentials.

What’s the Big Deal?

Collecting Interest.

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen.

Long-Term Play.

Looking Ahead.

Chapter 16. The Boomerang.

Fading False Breakouts.

The Strategy.

Setting the Parameters.

Entering the Trade.

Simple but Effective.


Chapter 17. How to Achieve Spectacular Gains.

Keep Your Eyes on the Road.

Proper Goal Setting.

Breaking Down Your Goals.

Consistency Is the Key.

What Happens When I Reach My Goal?

Chapter 18. The Forex Playing Field.

Evening the Odds.

The House Has the Edge.

Make the Playing Field Bigger.

But the Other Trading Instructor Said….

Let’s Do the Math.

Changing the Equation.

Why Doesn’t Everyone Do It?

Huge Gains with Minimal Effort!.

What We Can Learn From the “Smart Money”.

Now Get Out There and Win.

Chapter 19. Trading Lessons from Life.

Panic at the Beach.

The Endless Tournament.

In Summary.

Chapter 20. What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You.

Sarcasm Alert!.

Know When to Retreat.

The “95% Winners Strategy”.

Beware the Back Tester.

Hypothetically Speaking.

Chapter 21. A Tale of Two Traders.

Individuals vs. Institutions.

The Difference between Amateurs and Professionals.

Chapter 22. Some Final Thoughts.

Good Trades Are Not the Same Thing as Winning Trades.

Proper Execution is Critical.

Take Responsibility for Your Actions.

Keep It Simple.

Physical vs. Mental.

In Closing.



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