The Fourth Mega-Market, Now Through 2011: How Three Earlier Bull Markets Explain the Present and Predict the Future [NOOK Book]

Overview

A proven leader in the financial world explains the current bull market--and how to profit from it--by comparing it to the great bull markets of the past.

Were you surprised by Wall Street's incredible performance over the past few years? Ralph Acampora wasn't. In fact, Acampora, Prudential's top technical analyst, predicted the current bullish trend--and helped countless ...
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The Fourth Mega-Market, Now Through 2011: How Three Earlier Bull Markets Explain the Present and Predict the Future

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Overview

A proven leader in the financial world explains the current bull market--and how to profit from it--by comparing it to the great bull markets of the past.

Were you surprised by Wall Street's incredible performance over the past few years? Ralph Acampora wasn't. In fact, Acampora, Prudential's top technical analyst, predicted the current bullish trend--and helped countless clients profit from it. Now you can too.

Acampora coined the term mega-market to describe a bull market that lasts a minimum of ten years and a maximum of eighteen years with Dow gains of between 400% and 500%. In The Fourth Mega-Market, Acampora helps readers take advantage of the staggering performance of the current market by showing its similarities with the three previous mega-markets in American history. In an entertaining and straight-forward style, and with a wealth of informative charts and graphs, he helps readers recognize patterns that can explain market performance, showing how to use technical analysis to "hear the voices" of the market. He offers valuable tips, such as how to spot and protect yourself from a correction; how psychology and politics influence the market; and how to analyze the performance of various market segments. Finally, he makes exciting predictions on just where the market will go before it ends and how it will get there, giving specific recommendations. While today's information overload keeps us on the edge of our seats, scanning the numbers for subtle clues as to the market's next seismic shift, Ralph Acampora shows us the value of a larger perspective, one that not only explains today's mega-market, but also shows us how to keep investing our money wisely and ride high on the current wave.
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Editorial Reviews

Louis Rukeyser
Ralph gives us insight not just into the even-brighter financial horizons he now sees ahead, but also into the human transformation of a Bronx seminary student into the high priest of technical market analysis.
Dick Grasso
Ralph offers clear and sound insights into the fundamentals of technical market analysis . . . He provides a proven framework for investors to chart their own course and, significantly, shares his most valuable asset and his secret of success: knowledge.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780786871292
  • Publisher: Hyperion
  • Publication date: 9/1/2001
  • Sold by: Hachette Digital, Inc.
  • Format: eBook
  • Pages: 256
  • File size: 6 MB

Meet the Author

Ralph Acampora is Director of Technical Analysis at Prudential Securities and a true "guru" for thousands of market professionals. He came to national prominence in 1995 when, long before almost anyone else, he predicted that the Dow was entering a powerful bull market; and he astounded his colleagues and the financial world by telling his brokers and clients that the Dow, then at 4,500, was heading toward 7,000. He then went on accurately to predict the Dow's breathtaking advance to 8,250 and to 10,000.
Ralph Acampora is consulted for his opinion by major national newspapers, and make regular television appearances on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser, the Today Show, Nightline, NBC Nightly News, CNBC, and CNN-FN. He lives in New York City.

Michael D'Antonio shared the Pulitzer Prize in journalism as part of a Newsday reporting team. He has written five acclaimed non-fiction books, including Atomic Harvest and Tin Cup Dreams. He lives in Long Island.
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Table of Contents

Foreword 1
1 Out of the Box 7
2 Technical Analysis 101 29
3 How to Read Charts 51
4 The First Mega-Market: 1877-1891 83
5 The Second Mega-Market: 1921-1929 109
6 The Third Mega-Market: 1949-1966 135
7 The Fourth Mega-Market 165
8 Why the Mega-Bull Will Continue to Run 191
9 More Promise Than Peril 205
Acknowledgments 227
Index 231
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Sort by: Showing all of 7 Customer Reviews
  • Anonymous

    Posted February 27, 2001

    Fourth Mega-Market: Now Through 2011

    if Acamporo believes this is a bull market beyond out imaginations, then why is he only forecasting 10% per year over the next 10 years. That may sound good in today's market (he actually wrote this when the market was at an all-time high), but it is only marginally better than historic returns. I read nothing new in this book except for a lame forecast.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted October 24, 2000

    Very shallow---and self-promotional

    I expected much more out of this book--such as depth. If you take out all the fluff, you'd be left with a couple of pages of mediocre research. There are much better books of this kind out there.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted October 13, 2000

    A Technical Look at Similar Market Conditions to Today

    Technicians are those who look at a stock's history of prices and volumes to estimate what will happen to price in the future. Mr. Acampora is the chief technical analyst at Prudential Securities, and extends beyond the normal limits of technical analysis to predict the future for the current bull market. Using analogies to three earlier markets, he argues that the peak of the market should probably be above 20,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and that peak should occur between now and 2011. Notice that at current levels, this could be as little as 6-7 percent annual compound gains. He argues that the current market is being driven by a combination of peace, low interest rates, low inflation, and technological innovation. He points to 1877-1891 (the age of railroads and industrial expansion), 1921-1929 (the age of cars and radio), and 1949-1966 (the age of television, computers, and copiers) as similar periods. A critical part of his argument is that the current bull market started in 1994 (rather than 1982, as many would argue). His argument is based on the cold war not ending until the late 1980s. If the bull market actually stared in 1982, then we have little additional gain to expect. A weakness in his argument is that the advance-decline line should be strong now, but it has been fading for a long time. Another weakness is in insisting that stock prices are not high now. The average p/e is enormous compared to earlier markets (his counterarguments is that most stocks are trading at 12 times earnings). You can read the counterarguments to his thesis (and his responses) in chapter 9. Many Wall Street professionals will tell you that technical analysis is about as good as going to your local palm reader. People who believe in an efficient market think that technical analysis is a waste of time. On the other hand, Mr. Acampora has been right more often than not in the last 10 years in forecasting the bull market. You should decide for yourself. Many top professionals now use fundamental and technical analysis (but, of course, most of them fail to beat the market averages). If you don't know anything about technical analysis, you will find a brief, simple explanation in chapter 2. One of the most interesting parts of the book is a comparison of the characteristics of the overall market since 1994 to the three earlier markets. The sizes of the drops in the market are similar, but the speed of the drops is much faster now. On the other hand, the speed of the drops is similar to the 1920s. I couldn't help but wonder if the end of the current bull market may also be like 1929. Certainly, the drop in Internet stocks has been similar. I came away unconvinced by the argument here. I just don't think that the future repeats the past that closely. Here are some examples of things that are different now: the rate of technological change and impact is much faster and broader; inflation is low in the U.S. but not in many other places; the dollar could easily fall if foreigners decide to stop propping it up by buying U.S. securities to recycle the trade deficit; and there are many shortages (such as of trained engineers) that could greatly increase the rate of inflation. Nevertheless, I thought that the book was worth 4 stars just for making these data available about comparable markets so that we can each think about them, and draw our own conclusions. After you have read and evaluated this book, I suggest you think about other places where history has not proven to be a very good predictor . . . and where it has. Then consider whether the stock market is likely to be more like the former . . . or the latter. Good luck with your investments in any event!

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  • Anonymous

    Posted October 4, 2000

    There are better books out there

    Out of the 100+ investment-related books out there that I've read, this might rank last.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted October 4, 2000

    Something to KNOW,BELIEVE, AND DO

    I thoroughly enjoyed this book. It was written in layman's terms and I walked away with SOMETHING TO KNOW--todays bull market is very similar to at least 3 previous post-war periods and is likely to continue. SOMETHING TO BELIEVE--the future has never looked better and if technical analysis is used properly to identify risk and opportunity I will continue to enjoy this MEGA MARKET for years to come. SOMETHING TO DO--its time to review all of my porfolios to be sure that my stocks based on Ralph's thesis are 4th Mega Market compliant. He predicted Dow 7000,Dow 10,000 and now a sustained run through 2011, let the good times roll! Thanks Ralph.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted September 12, 2000

    Fourth Mega-Market: Now Through 2011

    The premise behind Acampora's theory is (too) simple: There were a couple of other bull markets which sort of looked like the current one (if in fact it hasn't already ended). This should have been a 4-page research report, not a book. This really was more of a brochure.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted September 19, 2000

    A palm reader wouldn't have predicted Dow 10,000

    I work with Ralph, so I am biased, but I couldn't disagree more with the first reviewer. The Fourth Mega Market is a fascinating, thoughtful overview of the historic patterns that explain today's market. I was particularly struck by his comparisons of the railroads of the late 1800s and today's Internet. Unlike most books on the market, it is far more than just a how-to-get-rich quick scheme. And it's an easy read; I read it in a couple hours on the airplane. I should have listened to Ralph when he was the first to predict the Dow reaching 10,000.

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