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This clear and accessible text explores Vietnam’s successful transition from neo-Stalinist central planning to a market economy—“Vietnamese style.” After describing the north Vietnamese system prior to 1975 and its colonial and pre-colonial antecedents, the authors uncover the mechanisms of that changeover. They contend that the Vietnamese transition was largely bottom-up in character and that it evolved over a long enough period for the country’s political economy to adjust. This explains in part the rapid shift to a high-growth, externally oriented development path in the early 1990s, despite the loss of Soviet aid and the lack of significant Western substitutes until 1992–1993. Based upon extensive in-country experience, a wealth of primary materials, and wide comparative knowledge of development issues, the book challenges many preconceived notions, both about Vietnam and about the general nature of transition processes.
| Preface | ||
| Acknowledgments | ||
| Introduction | 1 | |
| Theoretical Preliminaries | 2 | |
| Reform as Process, or as Government Program? | 3 | |
| "Reform as Process": Implications for the 1979-89 Transition | 6 | |
| The Givens | 10 | |
| The Transition: An Overview | 13 | |
| The Vietnamese Transition in a Third World Perspective | 16 | |
| Structure of the Book | 21 | |
| Notes: Some Definitions Restated | 22 | |
| 1 | The Nature of Economic Transition | 29 |
| The Nature of the Transition: Process or Revolution? | 29 | |
| Stages in Vietnam | 40 | |
| Note: The Economic Analysis of Transitional Economies | 40 | |
| 2 | Historical Context | 47 |
| Traditional Vietnam: The Family and Its Environment | 48 | |
| Foreign Models | 53 | |
| Neo-Stalinism Applied, 1957-75 | 56 | |
| 3 | Basic Constraints: Natural, Human, and Organizational | 75 |
| Natural Resources | 76 | |
| Human Resources | 79 | |
| Political System | 81 | |
| Economic Structure: The Impact of Transition | 86 | |
| 4 | Development Strategy | 125 |
| Reform's Fluctuating Meaning | 125 | |
| The Second and Third Five-Year Plans (1976-85) | 128 | |
| Institutional Foundations of the Transitional Model | 137 | |
| The Sixth Party Congress: Toward a Market Economy | 143 | |
| On the Brink: Development Strategy on the Eve of the Market Economy | 149 | |
| 5 | Markets and Sectors | 175 |
| Trade and Transactions: The Emergence of Markets | 175 | |
| Agriculture | 179 | |
| Industry | 191 | |
| The Nonagricultural Economy and Wider Development Issues | 198 | |
| 6 | Social Aspects, Equity, and the New Development Model | 227 |
| Equity and Differentiation: The Vietnamese Population Under and After Transition | 227 | |
| Education: The Overall Picture | 230 | |
| Health | 233 | |
| Implications for the 1990s | 238 | |
| 7 | Accumulation, Savings, and Market Development: Processes of Change Reconsidered | 243 |
| Events and Issues in 1989-94 | 243 | |
| Foreign Comments on the Vietnamese Transition to a Market Economy: An Overview | 246 | |
| The Meaning of "Commercialization": The Role of the State | 253 | |
| Limits Imposed by the Nature of the Post-1989 Vietnamese Market Economy | 254 | |
| The Role of the State in Support of Market Development | 267 | |
| 8 | Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of the State | 281 |
| Macroeconomic Performance 1989-93 | 282 | |
| Resource Gaps and a Path to Rapid Growth? | 283 | |
| Prices, Inflation, and Markets | 293 | |
| Vietnam 1994-95: From Systemic Change to Accelerated Development? | 298 | |
| 9 | Conclusions: Tiger on a Bicycle? | 303 |
| Systemic Reform: What Has Been Accomplished? | 304 | |
| Reasons for Success | 307 | |
| Concluding Concerns | 316 | |
| References | 319 | |
| About the Book and Authors | 341 | |
| Index | 343 |
Overview
This clear and accessible text explores Vietnam’s successful transition from neo-Stalinist central planning to a market economy—“Vietnamese style.” After describing the north Vietnamese system prior to 1975 and its colonial and pre-colonial antecedents, the authors uncover the mechanisms of that changeover. They contend that the Vietnamese transition was largely bottom-up in character and that it evolved over a long enough period for the country’s political economy to adjust. This explains in part the rapid shift...