Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe them Anyway

Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe them Anyway

by Dan Gardner, Philip Graham
     
 

ISBN-10: 0771035195

ISBN-13: 9780771035197

Pub. Date: 10/12/2010

Publisher: McClelland & Stewart Ltd.

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that…  See more details below

Overview

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780771035197
Publisher:
McClelland & Stewart Ltd.
Publication date:
10/12/2010
Pages:
320
Product dimensions:
6.30(w) x 9.20(h) x 1.03(d)

Table of Contents

PREFACE
ONE INTRODUCTION
TWO THE UNPREDICTABLE WORLD
THREE IN THE MINDS OF EXPERTS
FOUR THE EXPERTS AGREE: EXPECT MUCH MORE OF THE SAME
FIVE UNSETTLED BY UNCERTAINTY
SIX EVERYONE LOVES A HEDGEHOG
SEVEN WHEN PROPHETS FAIL
EIGHT THE END
 
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INDEX

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