Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting

Overview

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

  • What makes a good...
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Overview

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

  • What makes a good forecast?
  • What period should a forecast cover?
  • How frequently should it be updated?
  • What information should it contain?
  • What is the best way to produce a forecast?
  • How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
  • How should a forecast be used?
  • How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
  • How accurate does it need to be?
  • How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
  • What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
  • Do you need multiple forecasts?
  • What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?

Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. It is also a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways to improve results.

"Future Ready is a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future success." - Paul Baumann, Director of Finance and Investment, NHS London

"Studies continue to reveal that CFO teams around the globe have significant gaps in their planning and forecasting capabilities, exacerbated and exposed by the global recession. This book is a solutions-oriented approach to filling that gap." - Jeffrey C. Thomson, President and CEO, Institute of Management Accountants

"Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us don't understand either as well or as in as much detail as we should. Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting system." - Liz Doherty, CFO Brambles Ltd

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470747056
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 2/2/2010
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 302
  • Sales rank: 1,177,722
  • Product dimensions: 6.10 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 1.00 (d)

Meet the Author

Steve Morlidge has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems in Unilever, including 3 years as the lead of a global change project. He is a former Chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round Table and now works as an academic and as an independent consultant for a range of major companies. He is a prominent public speaker, drawing on his years of experience at the leading edge of performance. management thought and practice

Contact: steve.morlidge@satoripartners.co.uk
Web: www.satoripartners.co.uk.

Steve Player founder and managing director of The Player Group, has co-authored and edited five industry-leading cost and performance management books. He is program director for the Beyond Budgeting Round Table in North America. He served as the Managing Partner of the Advanced Cost Management Team of a global accounting firm. He is a top ranked speaker and consultant helping clients implement leading edge practices. he also writes a monthly column on Finance Transformation.

Contact: steve@theplayergroup.com
Web: www.theplayergroup.com.

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Table of Contents

Table of Figures xi

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgements xxv

Section I 'Why?' 1

Chapter 1 Part I Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I've Seen 3

Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17

Section 2 Principles 33

Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose - the Cassandra Paradox 35

Chapter 3 Mastering Time - Delay and Decision 57

Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87

Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement - Learning to Love Error 125

Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151

Section 3 'Praxis' 179

Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183

Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183

Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198

Theme #3 'Whose job is it anyway?' Roles and responsibilities 210

Section 4 Transformation 219

Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221

Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233

Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243

Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257

Glossary 261

Appendix 1 Design Principles: A Summary 267

Appendix 2 Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275

References 289

Index 295

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