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Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluation
     

Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluation

by Li-Gang Liu, Zhi Wang, Sherman Robinson, Li-Gang Liu, Zhi Wang
 

ISBN-10: 0881322601

ISBN-13: 9780881322606

Pub. Date: 06/01/1998

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

The Asian financial crisis has precipitated significant changes in real exchange rates in the region that will substantially alter the volume and pattern of international trade. The crisis countries will increase their exports and, especially, reduce their imports. Japan, China, and the other non-crisis countries will experience more complex changes. The trade

Overview

The Asian financial crisis has precipitated significant changes in real exchange rates in the region that will substantially alter the volume and pattern of international trade. The crisis countries will increase their exports and, especially, reduce their imports. Japan, China, and the other non-crisis countries will experience more complex changes. The trade balances of the United States and Western Europe will deteriorate by about $40-50 billion as a result of the currency movements in Asia.

This study, newly updated in August 1999, quantifies the impact of the currency changes on the individual countries in Asia, on the United States, on Europe and on other regions on a sector-by-sector basis. It analyzes the additional impact that might occur if China, thus far a relative bystander in the crisis, were to devalue its currency as well. It then examines potential trade policy responses to these developments including the risk of an upsurge in protectionist pressure in the United States.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780881322606
Publisher:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Publication date:
06/01/1998
Series:
Policy Analyses in International Economics Series
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
124
Product dimensions:
6.05(w) x 9.01(h) x 0.30(d)

Table of Contents

Prefacevii
Acknowledgmentsxi
1Introduction and Overview1
Introduction1
Origins and Nature of the Crisis3
The Fundamentalist Story5
The Panic Story21
Credibility26
Summary27
2Global Economic Effects31
Structure of the World Model31
Defining Modeling Scenarios35
Results39
Conclusion57
3Impact on the United States61
Trade Policy Response64
Conclusion71
Appendices
Appendix AAlgebraic Description of the Model73
Appendix BSectoral Definitions and Their GTAP-ISIC Concordance91
Appendix CSensitivity Analyses95
Appendix DElasticities99
References101

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