Global Water Security: Intelligence Community Assessment, ICA-February 2012

by Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.) (Contribution by), Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department (U.S.) (Compiler), Energy Department (U.S.) (Contribution by)

Overview

 This is an Intelligence Community -coordinated paper requested by the U.S. State Deprtment.

This report is s designed to answer the question: How will water problems (shortages, poor water quality, or floods) impact US national security interests over the next 30

years?

In this joint effort, we selected 2040 as the endpoint of our research to consider longer-term impacts from growing populations, climate change, and continued economic development. However, we sometimes cite specific time frames (e.g., 2030, 2025) when reporting is based on these dates.

For the Key Judgments, we emphasize impacts that will occur within the next 10 years.

We provide an introductory discussion of the global water picture, but we do not do a comprehensive analysis of the entire global water landscape. For the core classified analysis—a National Intelligence Estimate—we focused on a finite number of states that are strategically important to the United States

and transboundary issues from a selected set of water basins (Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong, Jordan, Indus, Brahmaputra, and Amu Darya). We judge that these examples are sufficient to illustrate the intersections between water challenges and US national security.

Assumptions: We assume that water management technologies will mature along present rates and that no far-reaching improvements will develop and be deployed over the next 30 years. In addition, for several states, we assume that present water policies—pricing and investments in infrastructure—are unlikely to change significantly. Cultural norms often drive water policies and will continue to do so despite recent political upheavals. Finally, we assume that states with a large and growing economic capacity continue to make infrastructure investments and apply technologies to address their water challenges.

This effort relied on previously published Intelligence Community (IC) products, peer-reviewed research, and consultations with outside experts. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was the principal drafter with contributions from NGA, CIA, State/INR, and DOE.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780160920653
Publisher:	US Independent Agencies and Commissions
Publication date:	08/15/2013
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	31
Sales rank:	298,837
File size:	3 MB
Age Range:	16 - 18 Years

Table of Contents

 Contents

Scope Note

Key Judgments

Risks and Opportunities

Discussion

Introduction—The Global Water Picture

Water Shortages

…and Poor Water Management

Other Water Problems

Impacts of Water problems

Potential Water-Related Social Disruption and State Failures…

Potential Driver of Conflict or Political Tool

Water Pressures

Risks to Agriculture and Economic Growth

Water-Energy-Industry Nexus

Improving Water Management and Investments

Use of Technology and Infrastructure

Trade of Products with High Water Content (“Virtual Water”)

Adoption of Pricing Mechanisms and Policies To Encourage Efficient Water Use

Hydrological Modeling for New and Revised Water-Sharing Agreements

Implications for the United States

Annex

What We Mean When We Say: An Explanation of Estimative Language 

This Assessment was prepared under the auspices of the Director of the Strategic Futures Group and

drafted by the Defense Intelligence Agency. It was coordinated with the Intelligence Community.