Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice

Overview

Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and...

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Overview

Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes:

  1. Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically
  2. Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement

Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

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Product Details

Table of Contents

Government Budget Forecasting: Improving the State of the Art, J. Sun and T.D. Lynch
FORECAST PRACTICES
Federal Revenue Forecasting, R. G. Penner
The State of the Art: Revenue Forecasting in U.S. State Government, K. G. Willoughby and H. Guo
Forecasting State Revenues in Louisiana: From Dramatic Changes in the Oil and Gas Industry in the 1970s and 1980s to the Aftermath of Catastrophic Hurricanes in the 2000s, J. A. Richardson
Budget Forecasting for the State of California, J. D. Vasché, B. Williams, and R. Ingenito
Forecasting the Personal Income Tax, Q. XU, R. Megna, H. Kayser, and L. Holland
Income Tax Forecasting in Minnesota, T. F. Stinson, P. D. Meagher, and J. L. Peloquin
Methods and Issues in Forecasting Casino Tax Revenue, J. Landers
Estimating and Forecasting Welfare Caseloads, S. Gurmu and W. J. Smith
Forecast Evaluation: A Case Study, J. Sun
Using Census Data to Forecast New Local Sales Taxes, J. D. Wong
Does Revenue Forecasting Responsibility Matter: The Case of Milwaukee, Wisconsin,C. D. Kammholzand C. S. Maher
Evaluating Revenue Forecasting in City Governments: A Survey of Texas Finance Directors,C.G. Reddick
Pro Forma Forecasting for Determining Financial Position of Enterprise Operations in Government,
A. Khan
Preparing Data for Forecasting, D. W. Williams
CONSENSUS FORECASTING
Consensus Forecasting for Budgeting in Theory and Practice, W. E Klay and J. A. Vonasek
Use of Consensus Revenue Forecasting in the U.S. State Governments, Y. Qiao
State Revenue Forecasting in the State of Indiana: A Consensus System in a Politically Divided State,
J. L. Mikesell
Consensus Revenue Estimating in State Government: A Case of What Works in Kansas, J.D. Wong and C.D. Ekstrom
UNCERTAINTY AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN BUDGET FORECASTING
Forecast Errors: Balancing the Risks and Costs of Being Wrong, Q. Xu, H. Kayser, and L. Holland
State Fiscal Management: What Practitioners Can Learn from Risk Management Theory, F. Thompson and B.L. Gates
State Tax Portfolios: An Integrated Methodology for Forecasting and Analysis, R. D. Nelson
OTHER TOPICS IN BUDGET FORECASTING
Forecasting Revenues and Expenditures in the Public Sector: Guidance from a Code of Ethics, R. W. Smith
Transparency in Government Revenue Forecasting, C. Garofalo and N. Rangarajan
Incorporating Fiscal Architecture into Budget Forecasting, S. Wallace
Forecasting Practices in Emerging Countries: The Morocco Experience, A. Zemrani
Index

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