The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century

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Overview

The Graying of the Great Powers offers the first comprehensive assessment of the geopolitical implications of "global aging"-the dramatic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. It describes how demographic trends in the developed world will constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security in the decades ahead. It also explains how dramatic demographic change in the developing world-from resurgent youth bulges in the Islamic world to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia-will give rise to serious new security threats. While some argue that global aging is pushing the world toward greater peace and prosperity, The Graying of the Great Powers warns that a period of great geopolitical danger looms just over the horizon. Neither the triumph of multilateralism nor democratic capitalism is assured. The demographic trends of the twenty-first century will challenge the geopolitical assumptions of both the left and the right.
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What People Are Saying

Michael Mandelbaum
"Perhaps no feature of social life has greater influence on international politics, and certainly none is less well understood, than demography. The Graying of the Great Powers presents a clear picture of the population trends of the twenty-first century and a provocative analysis of their consequences for the politics and economics of the next four decades."--(Michael Mandelbaum, Johns Hopkins University, author of Democracy's Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World's Most Popular Form of Government )
Robert L. Hutchings
"We are on the cusp of the most profound shift in global power and influence in more than a century.The Graying of the Great Powers helps us understand why this is so, how demographic and other trends will interact, and, most importantly, what we should do to manage this historic transformation."--(Robert L. Hutchings, Princeton University, former Chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council)
Nicholas Eberstadt
"The Graying of the Great Powers is a thoughtful and valuable first step toward an urgently needed assessment of what today's momentous global demographic changes may portend for the friendly--and unfriendly--competition between states in the world arena in the decades ahead."--(Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, author of Europe's Coming Demographic Challenge: Unlocking the Value of Health )
Phillip Longman
"Howe and Jackson break new ground by showing how global population aging is unlikely to lead to a 'geriatric peace.' Indeed, the forces of demography may be pushing the world toward a major crisis in the 2020s. This book is a must read for all policymakers concerned with the future of geopolitics."--(Phillip Longman, New America Foundation, author of The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It )
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780892065325
  • Publisher: Center for Strategic & International Studies
  • Publication date: 5/23/2008
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 224
  • Product dimensions: 7.00 (w) x 9.80 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Richard Jackson is a senior fellow and director of the Global Aging Initiative at CSIS. Neil Howe is a senior associate of the Global Aging Initiative at CSIS.

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Table of Contents

Ch. 1 Population and power 7

Ch. 2 The developed world: assessing the projections 37

Ch. 3 The developed world: assessing the consequences 79

Ch. 4 The developing world's demographic future: cause for hope or concern? 133

Ch. 5 A demographic map of our geopolitical future 185

App. 1 Technical notes 203

App. 2 Roundtable and interviews 213

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