The Great Deleveraging: Economic Growth and Investing Strategies for the Future


In a World of Debt and Bubbles, Learn Important Lessons to Navigate These Turbulent Times

?Dickson and Shenkar do a masterful job of wrapping context around the current crisis and mapping the territory ahead. But where others are satisfied to merely describe, the authors provide a clear strategic context for investors seeking long-term opportunities amidst today?s uncertainty and confusion. The Great Deleveraging is a compelling, insightful read that at once informs and guides ...

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The Great Deleveraging: Economic Growth and Investing Strategies for the Future

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In a World of Debt and Bubbles, Learn Important Lessons to Navigate These Turbulent Times

“Dickson and Shenkar do a masterful job of wrapping context around the current crisis and mapping the territory ahead. But where others are satisfied to merely describe, the authors provide a clear strategic context for investors seeking long-term opportunities amidst today’s uncertainty and confusion. The Great Deleveraging is a compelling, insightful read that at once informs and guides the reader through the financial turbulence that has become the new normal.”

--Paul Saffo, Managing Director, Foresight, DISCERN, and Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Stanford Media-X Research Network

“In The Great Deleveraging , Chip Dickson and Oded Shenkar place the bewildering events of recent years into historical context and map out the changes they see for the investment landscape of the future.”

--Warren Hatch, PhD, CFA, Catalpa Capital Advisors

“This invaluable one-of-a-kind book tackles the number-one economic issue of the early 21st century (excessive systemic financial leverage) and even provides a framework for investment success. Capital market students and investors alike will greatly benefit from a close study of the details, methods, and analyses incorporated in this timely treatise at such a critical junction in financial market history.”

--Jack Malvey, CFA, Global Capital Markets Consultant, Former Chief Global Fixed-Income Strategist, Lehman Brothers

The Great Deleveraging is packed with important financial clues and warning signals from a well-respected pro and a leading academic, to help you recognize the signs of a future financial calamity.”

--A. Michael Lipper, CFA, President, Lipper Advisory Services, Inc.

In the past decade, the United States experienced two periods of excessive growth followed by two massive financial collapses: the technology and housing bubbles. Both were caused by illusions of growth and wealth creation: Much of the foundation was not real. As an investor, how can you distinguish between “fake” growth and the real thing? What disciplines help you find solid returns and provide warning signs about bubbles?

Former Wall Street analyst, strategist, and Associate Director of Equity Research Chip Dickson and leading global business scholar Oded Shenkar first identify the policies and characteristics of societies most likely to generate real economic growth and investor wealth. Next, they outline specific lessons learned about bubbles and growth from nearly a century of investment returns. Finally, they identify global markets and sectors that appear well poised for sustainable growth.

In the wake of massive debt creation, history’s greatest deleveraging is now underway. For many investors, the next decade will be brutal. This book’s messages are designed to help achieve real profits and create real wealth. They are meant to help you navigate a challenging environment--and, hopefully, thrive.

  • Massive debt in the United States
    Where it came from and its implications
  • Stable economies, stable industries, solid investments
    Thoughts on finding solid, sustainable growth opportunities in an unstable global economy
  • Lessons from 90 years of real asset class returns
    The history may surprise you, and it should give you greater perspective
  • Long-term opportunities from three emerging economies
    Markets that appear poised for sustainable, real growth
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780132358101
  • Publisher: FT Press
  • Publication date: 8/25/2010
  • Pages: 317
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.30 (d)

Meet the Author

Chip Dickson is a cofounder, Director of Research, and Strategist of DISCERN, an equity research firm. This follows a Wall Street career of twenty years as an Equity Analyst, Strategist, and Associate Director of Research. The firms he worked at included Lehman Brothers and Salomon Smith Barney. His work received high rankings from Institutional Investor and Greenwich Associates. He earned his MBA and BSBA from Babson College and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Oded Shenkar holds degrees in East-Asian (Chinese) Studies and Sociology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a PhD from Columbia University. He is currently the Ford Motor Company Chair in Global Business Management and Professor of Management and Human Resources at the Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University, where he heads the international business area and is also a member of the Centers for Chinese Studies and for Near East Studies. Professor Shenkar has been a Senior Fellow at the University of Cambridge and has taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Peking University, University of International Business and Economics (Beijing), and the International University of Japan, among many others.

Professor Shenkar has published close to a hundred articles in leading journals. His books include The Chinese Century (Wharton School Publishing), which has been translated into twelve languages, and Copycats: how smart companies use imitation to gain a strategic edge (Harvard Business Press). His work has been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The Chicago Tribune, The Boston Globe, Business Week, The Economist, and many others.

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Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Five Major Events Driving Globalization 3

Chapter 1 The Great Leveraging 15

Sources and Forces of the Debt Expansion 23

Sources and Endnotes 41

Chapter 2 Growth Realities 43

Cycles 44

A Strong Private Sector Is a Must 51

Concentration, Dispersion, and Diversification 57

Chapter 3 Nine Decades of Real Asset Class Returns 63

Nine Decades of Real Returns for Eight Asset Classes 64

1920s and Before 67

1930s 71

1940s 77

1950s 79

1960s 83

1970s 87

1980s 90

1990s 94

The 2000s 96

Endnotes 100

Chapter 4 Global Economic Growth 101

The United States Emerges as the Leading Global Economy 103

Demographic and Other Shifts 105

Per Capita Growth 107

Endnotes 123

Chapter 5 Bull and Bear Markets 125

Characteristics of an Equity Bull Market 126

Characteristics of an Equity Bear Market 127

The Great Bull Markets 129

A New Beginning and the End of the Malaise: 1982-1987 134

The Information Age, a Peace Dividend, and Y2K: 1990-2000 136

The Big Bear Markets 138

Chapter 6 Global Growth Drivers 151

Leveraging Comparative Advantage 157

Analyzing National Environments 157

International Market Features 159

Chapter 7 Three Emerging Countries 167

China 167

India 173

Israel 179

Chapter 8 Private Sector Composition 183

Company Characteristics 184

The Sectors and the Industry Groups 185

Endnotes 203

Chapter 9 Industry Evolution 205

The Growth of the Financial Services Sector 212

Industry Trends and Challenges 218

Endnotes 231

Chapter 10 The Great Deleveraging 233

The Last Deleveraging: 1930-1953 236

The Next Deleveraging 239

Nonfinancial Corporations 243

Chapter 11 Market Signals 253

Valuation 253

Prior Returns 257

Interest Rates and Valuation 262

Interest Rate Spreads 266

Liquidity Metrics 268

Gold and the Dollar 271

Conclusion 273

Chapter 12 Rules of the Road 275

Know Your Financial Self 278

Build a Personal Balance Sheet 280

Understand Your Appetite for Risk 282

Develop a Saving Discipline 283

Preserve Principal 284

Develop a Spending Discipline 285

Diversify the Portfolio 289

Identify the Market Phase---Structural Bull Market or Structural Bear Market 292

Apply Basic Investment Disciplines 294

Have a Sell Discipline 296

Education, Get More 297

The Goal Is to Beat Your Financial Benchmark 300

Endnotes 304

Index 305

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