The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World

by
Paul Gilding

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Overview

"One of those who has been warning me of [a coming crisis] for a long time is Paul Gilding, the Australian environmental business expert. He has a name for this moment-when both Mother Nature and Father Greed have hit the wall at once-'The Great Disruption.' "-Thomas Friedman in the New York Times

It's time to stop just worrying about climate change, says Paul Gilding. We need instead to brace for impact because global crisis is no longer avoidable. This Great Disruption started in 2008, with spiking food and oil prices and dramatic ecological changes, such as the melting ice caps. It is not simply about fossil fuels and carbon footprints. We have come to the end of Economic Growth, Version 1.0, a world economy based on consumption and waste, where we lived beyond the means of our planet's ecosystems and resources.

The Great Disruption offers a stark and unflinching look at the challenge humanity faces-yet also a deeply optimistic message. The coming decades will see loss, suffering, and conflict as our planetary overdraft is paid; however, they will also bring out the best humanity can offer: compassion, innovation, resilience, and adaptability. Gilding tells us how to fight-and win-what he calls The One Degree War to prevent catastrophic warming of the earth, and how to start today.

The crisis represents a rare chance to replace our addiction to growth with an ethic of sustainability, and it's already happening. It's also an unmatched business opportunity: Old industries will collapse while new companies will literally reshape our economy. In the aftermath of the Great Disruption, we will measure "growth" in a new way. It will mean not quantity of stuff but quality and happiness of life. Yes, there is life after shopping.

The Great Disruption

Editorial Reviews

Publishers Weekly

Gilding, former director of Greenpeace International and now on the faculty at Cambridge University’s Program for Sustainable Leadership, proposes that global warming is just one piece of an impending planetary collapse caused by our overuse of resources. According to the Global Footprint Network, we surpassed Earth’s capacity in 1988, and by 2009, we needed the resources of 1.4 planets to sustain our economy—and any increases in efficiencies that some claim will solve the problem are likely only to encourage us to use more. Gilding argues that, like addicts who need to hit bottom, we energy users will deny our problem until we “face head-on the risk of collapse,” but when we do, we will address the emergency with the commitment of our response to WWII and begin a real transformation to a sustainable economy built on equality, quality of life, and harmony with the ecosystem. Gilding’s confidence in our ability to transform disaster into a “happiness economy” may astonish readers, but the book provides a refreshing, provocative alternative to the recent spate of gloom-and-doom climate-change studies. (Mar.)

Library Journal

Civilization is on a collision course, warns Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International and adviser to Fortune 500 companies, as he details dire stats: humans using 140 percent of Earth's resources, overpopulation, fisheries collapsing, deforestation, extreme weather, and lots of scary math. He advocates putting the world on an economic war footing, as during World War II. His "One-Degree War" is an action plan to reduce the planet's temperature, caused by greenhouse gases, to only one percent higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. Gilding maintains that the real solution is changing world economies from spiraling growth to a steady state. The goal is to upgrade goods and services to meet needs, not to pump up a gross national product that takes no account of quality of life. This joins similar recent books such as Thomas L. Friedman's Hot, Flat, and Crowded and Clive Hamilton's Requiem for a Species. VERDICT Though Gilding's prose is plain and his sustainability message is unapologetically advocative, he backs up his arguments with plenty of facts and avenues for readers to pursue. For general readers and programs with a sustainability component.—Michal Strutin, Santa Clara Univ. Lib., CA

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Kirkus Reviews

A leading advocate for action on climate change asserts that the world is already in the midst of a global emergency that will mark not the collapse of civilization, but a positive transformation of society.

Gilding, former chief of Greenpeace International, argues that our planet cannot sustain the present rate of economic growth and that the crash of the global ecosystem is now underway. While the coming social and economic stresses will be enormous, the author sees the disruption as an exciting opportunity for humanity to make a great leap forward. Updating his 2005 paper "Scream Crash Boom," in which he predicted that economic and social crises would drive an investment boom in a new industrial revolution and economic transformation, Gilding here expands the scream, sounded first in the early '60s by Rachel Carson inSilent Spring; the crash, which became apparent in 2008; and the boom, which must be the response. He states that the end of economic growth and the threat of climate change will provoke both massive technological changes and profound sociological changes, and that while some people will act selfishly out of fear, many will act positively. The author foresees a society "built on the quality of life, a more equitable sharing of the world's wealth, and learning to operate in harmony with the ecosystem's capacity to support us." He cites dozens of examples of positive changes that are already underway, such as Recycle Bank, an American business that has increased recycling by rewarding recyclers; Ocado, a British supermarket that has reduced its carbon footprint; Sodra, a sustainable-forestry company in Sweden; and E+Co, a nonprofit organization bringing clean energy to developing countries around the globe. Gilding acknowledges that these are small changes, but they demonstrate the capacity of humans to find cooperative and innovative solutions to tough problems.

A remarkably optimistic view of the brave new world in our future—certain to be widely and strongly challenged.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781608192236
Publisher: Bloomsbury USA
Publication date: 3/29/2011
Pages: 304
Sales rank: 182,618
Product dimensions: 6.30 (w) x 9.40 (h) x 1.30 (d)

Meet the Author

Paul Gilding is an international thought leader and advocate for sustainability. He has served as head of Greenpeace International, built and led two companies, and advised both Fortune 500 corporations and community-based NGOs. A member of the core faculty for the Cambridge University Program for Sustainability Leadership, he blogs at www.paulgilding.com, and his newsletter, the Cockatoo Chronicles, has subscribers around the world.

Foreword to the Paperback Edition ix

1 An Economic and Social Hurricane 1

2 The Scream-We Are Their Children's Children 9

3 A Very Big Problem 30

4 Beyond the Limits-The Great Disruption 49

5 Addicted to Growth 64

6 Global Foreshock-The Year That Growth Stopped 76

7 The Road Ahead-Our Planetary Sat Nav 89

8 Are We Finished? 96

9 When the Dam of Denial Breaks 115

10 The One-Degree War 123

11 How an Austrian Economist Could Save the World 143

12 Creative Destruction on Steroids-Out with the Old, In with the New 157

13 Shifting Sands-From Middle Eastern Oil to Chinese Sun 175

14 The Elephant in the Room-Growth Doesn't Work 184

15 The Happiness Economy 194

16 Yes, There is Life After Shopping 203

17 No, the Poor Will Not Always Be with Us 214

18 Ineffective Inequality 223

19 The Future is Here, It's Just Not Widely Distributed Yet 236

20 Guess Who's in Charge? 256

Acknowledgments 264

Notes 267

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leopardiNJ

Posted December 12, 2011

Too little substance.

The world's economic base of non-renewable resources has already been exceeded. The Earth's ecology is collapsing. Climate change will soon (or has already) begun to deal humanity of series of devastating and humiliating defeats. Bad news? Not at all. Humanity must and will respond with a new world economic order (haven't we heard that somewhere else recently?). The crooked path of consumer-driven economics will be straightened, prosperity and equality will reign and we will all be 10 to 20% happier. Or so Paul Gilding claims in The Great Disruption. Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International, presents himself as a born-again green corporate insider. His vision of the future is pleasant enough, but what he fails to do in this book is explain why that vision will unfold. The author spends more than 100 of the opening pages in very broad generalizations about climate change, ecologic destruction, etc. before finally getting down to some concrete points which he summarily condenses into bullets, referring the reader to full explanations that supposedly reside in a non-open-source on-line journal article. Given the ascendency of the denier media in controlling the bully pulpit, the author's approach is misguided. Gilding takes pointed aim at the absurdity of consumerism (aka, shopping) and its purported link to economic growth. But, perhaps the weakest link in his analysis comes with the assumption that economic growth equates with the continuous growth of physical, non-renewable resources. The author rightly claims that physical resources are finite, that consumerism is founded on those non-renewable resources and hence must eventually collapse. But that is not the same as proving that economic growth itself is doomed. It all depends on your definition of growth. The service sector of the global economy, for example, such as health services, could conceivably grow irrespective of the limits of physical resources. Consumerism (at least the shop-till-you-drop aspect of consumerism) is a symptom of an underlying malady of our media-driven world, it is not the fundamental cause of humanity's impact on the global ecosystem. Even if media-driven shopping mania were to stop entirely, the disproportionate impact of the rest of western lifestyles would remain unsustainable. Economic growth is a consequence of the specialization that is essential for maintaining the global population of over 7 billion people. If we could survive and provide for all our needs without interacting (money and economy) with others, then growth would stop. So would several billion people. Is that what Gilding proposes? With at least a third of the world currently aspiring to ride the coattails of economic growth and at least another third too busy trying to survive to be in any way concerned about the decline in biodiversity or the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, it is highly unlikely that humanity will suddenly see the error of Western civilization's ways and spontaneously transform into some brave new sustainable world. The only possible global solutions to impending crises are market forces or war. Social pressures won't operate across the full range of human diversity. Richard R. Pardi Environmental Science William Paterson University

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The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World

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The Great Disruption

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Too little substance.