Heads Up is about predicting the present. Predicting the present means taking raw empirical information, analyzing it, and determining its meaning and implications. However, managers don't need to know all the operational data to understand what the present situation is. Predicting the present is gathering enough information to answer the question, "Where are we right now in meeting our corporate goals?"
By recognizing that there is always warning, and therefore monitoring progress on a daily basis, managers can turn what would have been surprises into a whole new world of opportunity.
In the hands of a capable manager, current information about the state of the business always shows opportunities to improve good results or, at a minimum, to act to mitigate the impact of poor results. Therefore:
- If you acquire the ability to capture, receive, monitor and analyze information about certain events, when those events occur, you can predict the present.
- If you predict the present and identify the always-present early warnings of difficulties or successes, you will have identified an opportunity for better performance.
- If you take effective action based on these opportunities, you will be engaged in real-time opportunity detection.
Real-time information is valuable because it gives the manager the most possible response options. Response options are actions that may be taken to mitigate the negative impacts or accentuate the positive aspects of an event before the impact of the event is felt. For example, if sales volumes are falling (event), a response option is to increase advertising to improve sales volume before quarterly revenue targets are missed (impact). As time passes after an event occurs, however, there are fewer and fewer responses that a manager can make to the event before the impact occurs.
When discussing real-time information, the goal is to move the capture, monitoring, analysis and reporting steps not just earlier in the process, but into real time. Moving these steps into real time allows the most possible response options and enables choosing the best response from among them. A real-time response without due deliberation can sometimes be more harmful than the original situation. A "right-time" response can be far superior to a real-time response.
Monitoring, capture, analysis and reporting of critical information must move to real time so predicting the present and real-time opportunity detection can take place. They will determine the "right time" for a response to achieve maximum positive results.
To end business surprises, managers must receive a heads-up about the present - a few vital elements of data about what is happening right now in their business. Using this information, a manager can successfully understand the big picture at any given moment and predict the present. Using this real-time understanding of what is happening in his or her business, any manager has the chance to take action to prevent surprises and turn them into opportunities. Copyright © 2004 Soundview Executive Book Summaries