Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment / Edition 1

Paperback (Print)
Buy New
Buy New from BN.com
$52.81
(Save 14%)
Used and New from Other Sellers
Used and New from Other Sellers
from $42.99
Usually ships in 1-2 business days
(Save 30%)
Other sellers (Paperback)
  • All (20) from $42.99   
  • New (12) from $51.39   
  • Used (8) from $42.99   

More About This Textbook

Overview

Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions.

Read More Show Less

Editorial Reviews

Booknews
An anthology of new and existing contributions in which psychologists from around the world examine how people decide whether a benefit is worth the cost, whether someone would make a good parent, whether the left flank is adequately protected, and other fuzzy questions. They explain that judgment under uncertainty is often based not on formal and extensive algorithmic processing, but on a limited number of simplifying heuristics that typically yield accurate judgments but can also generate systematic error. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Read More Show Less

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780521796798
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • Publication date: 7/28/2002
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 874
  • Sales rank: 501,423
  • Product dimensions: 5.98 (w) x 8.98 (h) x 1.34 (d)

Table of Contents

List of Contributors
Preface
Introduction - Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now 1
1 Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment 19
2 Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgement 49
3 How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgements 82
4 Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery 98
5 The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information 103
6 Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgements of Belief and Value 120
7 Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic 139
8 Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They "Should" 150
9 Inferential Correction 167
10 Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem 185
11 Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity "Heuristics" 201
12 Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice 217
13 The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence 230
14 Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions 250
15 Probability Judgment across Cultures 271
16 Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting 292
17 Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions 313
18 Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability 324
19 When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism 334
20 Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives 348
21 Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself 367
22 Two Systems of Reasoning 379
23 The Affect Heuristic 397
24 Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? 421
25 Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability 441
26 Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory 474
27 Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions 489
28 The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning 510
29 Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies 534
30 Automated Choice Heuristics 548
31 How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics? 559
32 Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors 582
33 The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences 601
34 Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs 617
35 When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists 625
36 Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives 636
37 Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants 666
38 Do Analysts Overreact? 678
39 The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory 686
40 Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment 716
41 Heuristics and Biases in Application 730
42 Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics 749
References 763
Index 855
Read More Show Less

Customer Reviews

Be the first to write a review
( 0 )
Rating Distribution

5 Star

(0)

4 Star

(0)

3 Star

(0)

2 Star

(0)

1 Star

(0)

Your Rating:

Review Guidelines
Add Recommendations
Your Name: Create a Pen Name or

Barnes & Noble.com Review Rules

Our reader reviews allow you to share your comments on titles you liked, or didn't, with others. By submitting an online review, you are representing to Barnes & Noble.com that all information contained in your review is original and accurate in all respects, and that the submission of such content by you and the posting of such content by Barnes & Noble.com does not and will not violate the rights of any third party. Please follow the rules below to help ensure that your review can be posted.

Reviews by Our Customers Under the Age of 13

We highly value and respect everyone's opinion concerning the titles we offer. However, we cannot allow persons under the age of 13 to have accounts at BN.com or to post customer reviews. Please see our Terms of Use for more details.

What to exclude from your review:

Please do not write about reviews, commentary, or information posted on the product page. If you see any errors in the information on the product page, please send us an email.

Reviews should not contain any of the following:

  • - HTML tags, profanity, obscenities, vulgarities, or comments that defame anyone
  • - Time-sensitive information such as tour dates, signings, lectures, etc.
  • - Single-word reviews. Other people will read your review to discover why you liked or didn't like the title. Be descriptive.
  • - Comments focusing on the author or that may ruin the ending for others
  • - Phone numbers, addresses, URLs
  • - Pricing and availability information or alternative ordering information
  • - Advertisements or commercial solicitation

Reminder:

  • - By submitting a review, you grant to Barnes & Noble.com and its sublicensees the royalty-free, perpetual, irrevocable right and license to use the review in accordance with the Barnes & Noble.com Terms of Use.
  • - Barnes & Noble.com reserves the right not to post any review -- particularly those that do not follow the terms and conditions of these Rules. Barnes & Noble.com also reserves the right to remove any review at any time without notice.
  • - See Terms of Use for other conditions and disclaimers.
Search for Products You'd Like to Recommend

Recommend other products that relate to your review. Just search for them below and share!

Create a Pen Name

Your Pen Name is your unique identity on BN.com. It will appear on the reviews you write and other website activities. Your Pen Name cannot be edited, changed or deleted once submitted.

 
Your Pen Name can be any combination of alphanumeric characters (plus - and _), and must be at least two characters long.

Continue Anonymously
    If you find inappropriate content, please report it to Barnes & Noble
    Why is this product inappropriate?
    Comments (optional)