Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment / Edition 1

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Overview

Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions.

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Editorial Reviews

Booknews
An anthology of new and existing contributions in which psychologists from around the world examine how people decide whether a benefit is worth the cost, whether someone would make a good parent, whether the left flank is adequately protected, and other fuzzy questions. They explain that judgment under uncertainty is often based not on formal and extensive algorithmic processing, but on a limited number of simplifying heuristics that typically yield accurate judgments but can also generate systematic error. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
From the Publisher
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment; offers a massive, state-of-the-art treatment of the literature, supplementing a similar book published two decades ago...This is an impressive book, full of implications for law and policy." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago Law School

"...the book should serve well as a reference work for researchers in cognitive science and as a textbook for advanced courses in that difficult topic. Philosophers interested in cognitive science will also wish to consult it." Metapsychology Online Review

"Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment is a scholarly treat, one that is sure to shape the perspectives of another generation of researchers, teachers, and graduate students. The book will serve as a welcome refresher course for some readers and a strong introduction to an important research perspective for others." Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780521796798
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • Publication date: 7/28/2002
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 874
  • Sales rank: 1,115,483
  • Product dimensions: 5.98 (w) x 8.98 (h) x 1.34 (d)

Table of Contents

List of Contributors
Preface
Introduction - Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now 1
1 Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment 19
2 Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgement 49
3 How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgements 82
4 Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery 98
5 The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information 103
6 Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgements of Belief and Value 120
7 Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic 139
8 Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They "Should" 150
9 Inferential Correction 167
10 Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem 185
11 Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity "Heuristics" 201
12 Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice 217
13 The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence 230
14 Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions 250
15 Probability Judgment across Cultures 271
16 Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting 292
17 Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions 313
18 Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability 324
19 When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism 334
20 Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives 348
21 Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself 367
22 Two Systems of Reasoning 379
23 The Affect Heuristic 397
24 Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? 421
25 Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability 441
26 Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory 474
27 Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions 489
28 The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning 510
29 Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies 534
30 Automated Choice Heuristics 548
31 How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics? 559
32 Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors 582
33 The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences 601
34 Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs 617
35 When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists 625
36 Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives 636
37 Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants 666
38 Do Analysts Overreact? 678
39 The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory 686
40 Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment 716
41 Heuristics and Biases in Application 730
42 Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics 749
References 763
Index 855
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