Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment by Thomas Gilovich | Hardcover | Barnes & Noble
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

by Thomas Gilovich
     
 

ISBN-10: 0521792606

ISBN-13: 9780521792608

Pub. Date: 07/28/2002

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

An anthology of new and existing contributions in which psychologists from around the world examine how people decide whether a benefit is worth the cost, whether someone would make a good parent, whether the left flank is adequately protected, and other fuzzy questions. They explain that judgment under uncertainty is often based not on formal and extensive

Overview

An anthology of new and existing contributions in which psychologists from around the world examine how people decide whether a benefit is worth the cost, whether someone would make a good parent, whether the left flank is adequately protected, and other fuzzy questions. They explain that judgment under uncertainty is often based not on formal and extensive algorithmic processing, but on a limited number of simplifying heuristics that typically yield accurate judgments but can also generate systematic error. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780521792608
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Publication date:
07/28/2002
Pages:
880
Product dimensions:
5.98(w) x 8.98(h) x 1.81(d)

Table of Contents

List of Contributorsxi
Prefacexv
Introduction - Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now1
Part 1.Theoretical and Empirical Extensions
A.Representativeness and Availability
1Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment19
2Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment49
3How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments82
4Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery98
5The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information103
B.Anchoring, Contamination, and Compatibility
6Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value120
7Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic139
8Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They "Should"150
9Inferential Correction167
10Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem185
11Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity "Heuristics"201
12Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice217
C.Forecasting, Confidence, and Calibration
13The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence230
14Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions250
15Probability Judgment across Cultures271
16Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting292
D.Optimism
17Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions313
18Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability324
19When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism334
E.Norms and Counterfactuals
20Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives348
21Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself367
Part 2.New Theoretical Directions
A.Two Systems of Reasoning
22Two Systems of Reasoning379
23The Affect Heuristic397
24Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?421
B.Support Theory
25Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability441
26Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory474
27Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions489
C.Alternative Perspectives on Heuristics
28The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning510
29Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies534
30Automated Choice Heuristics548
31How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?559
32Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors582
Part 3.Real-World Applications
A.Everyday Judgment and Behavior
33The Hot Hand in Basketball: on the Misperception of Random Sequences601
34Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs617
35When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists625
36Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives636
B.Expert Judgment
37Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants666
38Do Analysts Overreact?678
39The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory686
40Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment716
41Heuristics and Biases in Application730
42Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics749
References763
Index855

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