How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin
     
 

ISBN-10: 0691139482

ISBN-13: 9780691139487

Pub. Date: 08/24/2009

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end - and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by

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Overview

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end - and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. In How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780691139487
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
Publication date:
08/24/2009
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
330
Product dimensions:
6.20(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.10(d)

Table of Contents

Contents

Acknowledgments....................xi
Abbreviations....................xv
Introduction....................1
The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threat....................3
A Word about Scope and Terms....................6
The Conceptual Framework....................7
Case Selection....................8
Overview of Chapters....................9
Chapter One Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader....................14
What Decapitation Means....................16
The Arrest of Top Leaders....................17
Abimael Guzmán and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)....................18
Abdullah Öcalan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party....................20
Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army....................22
Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo....................23
Assassination or "Targeted Killing"....................24
The Philippines' Abu Sayyaf....................27
Russia and Chechen Leaders....................28
Israel's "Targeted Killings"....................29
How Decapitation Ends Terrorism....................31
Chapter Two Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process....................35
Why Governments Negotiate....................36
Why Groups Negotiate....................39
Case Studies of Negotiations....................42
The Northern Ireland Peace Process....................42
Analysis of the Agreement....................47
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process....................48
Terrorism and the Talks....................55
The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers)....................57
Analysis of the Failure....................61
Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiations....................62
Stalemate....................63
Strong Leadership....................64
Sponsors....................65
Suicide Campaigns....................66
Splintering....................67
Spoilers....................69
Setting and Story....................70
How Negotiations End Terrorism....................71
Chapter Three Success: Achieving the Objective....................73
What Does "Success" Mean?....................74
Survival....................75
Achievement of Objectives....................77
Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goals....................77
Ending Terrorism: Strategic or "Outcome" Goals....................80
Cases of Success....................82
Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL)....................82
The African National Congress and Umkhonto....................85
Other Notable Cases....................89
How Success Ends Terrorism....................91
Conclusions....................92
Chapter Four Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized....................94
Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapse....................95
Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation....................95
Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups in the 1970s....................97
Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups in the 1990s....................98
Infighting and Fractionalization....................100
Loss of Operational Control....................102
Accepting an Exit....................103
Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support....................104
The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant....................105
Loss of Contact with "the People"....................107
Targeting Errors and Backlash....................108
How Failure Ends Terrorism....................110
Chapter Five Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force....................115
Analyzing the Strategies of Terrorism....................117
Case Studies of Repression....................122
Russia and Narodnaya Volya....................123
Peru and Sendero Luminoso....................125
Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party....................128
Uruguay and the Tupamaros....................129
Russia and Chechnya....................131
Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966....................137
How Repression Ends Terrorism....................141
Chapter Six Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi....................146
Criminality and Terrorism....................148
Colombia and the FARC....................149
The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf....................152
Insurgency and Terrorism....................153
Algeria and the GIA....................155
Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War....................157
India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups....................159
Outdated Paradigms, Practical Implications....................162
How War Ends Terrorism....................166
Chapter Seven How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History....................167
Is Al-Qaeda Unique?....................168
Resilient Structure....................169
Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment....................171
Means of Support....................174
Means of Communication....................175
The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Framework....................177
Decapitation: Capturing or Killing the Leaders....................177
Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates....................179
Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives....................182
Failure through Implosion....................183
Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support....................187
Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force....................190
Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means....................191
Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise....................193
Conclusion....................197
Understanding How Terrorism Ends....................201
Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns....................207
Notes....................223
Selected Bibliography....................283
Index....................297

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