Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Applications of a Process Model

Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Applications of a Process Model

by Thomas S. Szayna
     
 

Intrastate communitarian strife, dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose. One, to order the analyst's thinking about the logic and

Overview

Intrastate communitarian strife, dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose. One, to order the analyst's thinking about the logic and dynamics of potential ethnically based violence and to aid in defining the information-collection requirements of such an analysis. Two, to provide a conceptual framework about how ethnic grievances form and group mobilization occurs and how these could lead to violence; and three to assist the intelligence community with the long-range assessment of possible ethnic strife. The theoretical model explains how the potential for strife should be understood, transformed; and how extant state capacities interact through a process of strategic bargaining with mobilized groups to produce varying degrees of strife.

Editorial Reviews

African Security Review
Achieves what it sets out to do--helping political analysts to order their thinking when observing a political landscape.
Nationalities Papers
Well-written and concise. With supplemental readings, this book might serve as the foundation of a course on ethnic conflict.
Parameters
The authors introduce a model that enables analysts to track and predict ethnic conflicts. The model is quite comprehensive.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780833028426
Publisher:
Rand Publishing
Publication date:
12/19/2000
Pages:
348
Product dimensions:
5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.90(d)

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