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Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach


Due to the ever-evolving tactics of Our enemies, the American intelligence community, has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis while better meeting the needs of the end-user.

Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new forth ...

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Due to the ever-evolving tactics of Our enemies, the American intelligence community, has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis while better meeting the needs of the end-user.

Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new forth edition accounts for recent events and is rife with new examples throughout. Brand new and significantly revised coverage includes chapters on managing the analytic unit, analytic methodologies, and the analytic spectrum, bringing a heightened level of clarity to this outstanding, must-have resource.

Clark's practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practioners alike.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781452206127
  • Publisher: Congressional Quarterly, Inc.
  • Publication date: 9/25/2012
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 4
  • Pages: 432
  • Sales rank: 238,280
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.40 (d)

Table of Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes xii

Preface xvi

Introduction xix

Why We Fail xix

Failure to Share Information xx

Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively xxi

Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence xxii

What the Book Is About xxiii

Summary xxiv

Part 1 Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis 1

1 The Intelligence Process 1

The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict 3

The Traditional Intelligence Cycle 4

Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process 7

The Target 11

The Target as a Complex System 12

The Complex Target as a Network 13

Summary 17

2 Defining the Intelligence Problem 19

Statement of the Problem 20

The Problem Definition Product 22

Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task 23

Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems 25

Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem 28

Summary 29

3 An Analysis Approach to the Target 31

The Concept of a Model 32

Using Target Models for Analysis 35

Counterintelligence Analysis 37

Targets 37

Operations 37

Linkages 38

Target Model Combinations 38

Submodels 39

Collateral Models 40

Summary 42

4 The Analytic Spectrum 44

The Conflict Spectrum 44

Strategic Intelligence 46

Operational Intelligence 46

Tactical Intelligence 50

The Temporal Analysis Spectrum 52

Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence 53

The Tyranny of Current Intelligence 54

Fusion Centers 55

Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions 55

Indications and Warning 56

Summary 59

Part 2 Synthesis: Creating the Model 61

5 Overview of Models in Intelligence 62

Creating a Conceptual Model 62

Generic Models 63

Lists 63

Curves 63

Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking) 65

Pattern Models 66

Relationship Models 70

Profiles 77

Process Models 79

Simulation Models 80

Combination Models 82

Geospatial Models 82

Human Terrain Models 84

Space-Time Models 85

Geographic Profiling 86

Summary 87

6 Sources of Intelligence Information 89

Existing Reports 89

A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources 90

Literal Intelligence Sources 93

Open Source 93

Human Intelligence 96

Communications Intelligence 101

Cyber Collection 106

Nonliteral Intelligence 112

Remote and In Situ Sensing 112

Imaging and Spectral Sensing 114

Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence 117

Radar Intelligence 119

Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence 119

Materiel and Materials Collection 121

Biometrics 123

Summary 123

7 Evaluating and Collating Data 127

Evaluating Evidence 127

Evaluating the Source 128

Evaluating the Communications Channel 131

Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence 133

Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence 136

Combining Evidence 143

Convergent and Divergent Evidence 143

Redundant Evidence 143

Formal Methods for Combining Evidence 144

Summary 145

8 Collection Strategies 147

The U.S. Collection Management Problem 148

The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship 151

Identifying Gaps 154

Developing the Collection Strategy 156

Using Existing Collection Assets 156

Dealing with Enigmas 162

Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps 163

Executing Collection Strategies 164

Summary 165

9 Denial, Deception, and Signaling 167

Denial and Deception 167

Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods 169

Higher Level Denial and Deception 171

The Man Who Never Was 171

The Cuban Missile Crisis 172

The Farewell Dossier 173

The Indian Nuclear Test 174

Countering Denial and Deception 175

Signaling 178

Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D 180

Summary 181

Part 3 Predictive Analysis 183

10 Analytic Methodologies 184

Structured Argumentation 184

Wigmore's Charting Method 185

Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence 186

Competitive and Alternative Target Models 188

Competitive Analysis 188

Alternative Analysis 189

The Role of Information Technology 191

Summary 192

11 Prediction 195

Introduction to Prediction 195

Convergent and Divergent Phenomena 196

The Predictive Approach 198

Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis 202

Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis 203

Scenarios 203

Why Use Scenarios? 204

Types of Scenarios 205

Scenario Perspectives 207

How to Construct Scenarios 207

Indicators and the Role of Intelligence 212

A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 213

Summary 216

12 Predictive Techniques 218

Extrapolation 219

Extrapolation Techniques 219

Correlation and Regression 221

Limitations of Extrapolation 222

Projection 223

Generating Alternatives 223

Influence Trees or Diagrams 224

Influence Nets 228

Making Probability Estimates 229

Sensitivity Analysis 230

Forecasting 231

The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting 232

Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting 234

Evaluating Forecasts 234

Summary 235

13 Shaping Forces 237

Inertia 237

Countervailing Forces 239

Contamination 240

Synergy 242

Feedback 244

Strength 246

Time Delay 246

Regulation 247

Summary 250

14 Organizational Analysis 252

Structure 253

Organizational Size and Capabilities 253

Type of Structure 254

Network Analysis 254

Function 260

Rational Aspect 260

Cultural Aspect 262

Emotional Aspect 266

Collective Decision Making 267

Process 267

Operations Research 268

Schedule 270

Cost 274

Summary 276

15 Technology and Systems Analysis 279

Technology Assessment 279

Future Performance 280

Innovation 282

Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion 286

Systems Analysis 290

Future Systems 291

Performance Analyses 293

Systems Simulation 299

Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis 300

Creating and Running a Simulation 301

Summary 303

16 The Intelligence Customer 306

Introduction 306

Policymakers 307

Congress 311

Business Leaders 312

Military Leadership 312

Military Operations 313

Homeland Security 313

Law Enforcement 314

What All Customers Want 315

Analyst-Customer Interaction 316

Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message 317

Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In 318

The Defense Analysis Challenge 321

Presenting Analysis Results 322

Support Every Analytic Conclusion 322

Write or Brief with a Purpose 323

Separate Facts from Analysis 323

Get to the Point 324

Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress 324

Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To 325

Write as You Would Talk 325

Avoid Acronyms 326

Use Graphics 326

Summary 326

17 Managing Analysis 329

Introduction 329

Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need? 330

What Should the Unit Produce? 331

Structure 332

Topical or Regional Structure? 332

Fusion Centers 333

To Firewall or Not to Firewall 334

Process 335

The Analyst 335

Recruiting and Developing Analysts 338

Planning the Analysis Project 340

Managing Team Efforts 341

Peer and Management Review 346

Collaborative Tools 347

Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods 347

Limits and Boundaries 348

Limits 349

Boundaries 350

Function 353

Pressures 353

Some Causes of Failures 356

Evaluating the Product 359

Summary 360

Appendix I A Tale of Two NIEs 365

The Yugoslavia NIE 365

The Setting 366

First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE) 366

Second Draft: Force Field Analysis 368

The Customer View 368

The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE 369

Poor Problem Definition 370

Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence 371

Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models 373

Poor Analytic Methodology 373

Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers 374

Appendix II Example Project Plan 376

Problem Definition 376

Précis 376

Research Plan 377

Index 379

About the Author 403

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