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Interpreting China's Grand Strategy
Past, Present, and Future
By Michael D. Swaine Ashley J. Tellis Rand Corporation
Copyright © 2000 Rand Corporation
All right reserved.
Preface
This study identifies and analyzes the major factors determining China's grand strategy-past, present, and future-to better understand the motivations behind Chinese strategic behavior and to assess how such behavior might evolve in the future, over both the near and long term. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to more clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China's grand strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic interests.
The study was conducted as part of a larger, multiyear project on "Chinese Defense Modernization and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force." Other RAND reports from this project include:
Mark Burles, Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics, MR-1045-AF, 1999.
Zalmay M. Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel L. Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David Shlapak, and Ashley J. Tellis, The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications, MR-1082-AF, 1999.
Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky, Patterns in China's Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings, MR-1160-AF, 2000.
This project is conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force(AF/XO), and the Director, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (AF/XOI). Comments are welcome and may be directed to the authors or to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad.
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analysis. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
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