Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States: Competition, Crisis, and the Reordering of Power

Overview

Iraq's strength, ambition, and aggressiveness were for decades a source of regional instability. Saddam Hussein invaded two neighbors Iran and Kuwait and oppressed his own population. But now, as Iraq undergoes a transformation to a more open and democratic society, it has become a fragmented country with highly contested politics that opens the door to regional interference and competition.

Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States examines how Iraq's evolving political order ...

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Overview

Iraq's strength, ambition, and aggressiveness were for decades a source of regional instability. Saddam Hussein invaded two neighbors Iran and Kuwait and oppressed his own population. But now, as Iraq undergoes a transformation to a more open and democratic society, it has become a fragmented country with highly contested politics that opens the door to regional interference and competition.

Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States examines how Iraq's evolving political order affects its complex relationships with its neighbors and the United States. The book depicts a region unbalanced, shaped by new and old tensions, struggling with a classic collective action dilemma, and anxious about Iraq's political future, as well as America's role in the region, all of which suggest trouble ahead absent concerted efforts to promote regional cooperation. In the volume's case studies, acclaimed scholars and experts review Iraq's bilateral relationships with Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab States, Syria, and Jordan and explore how Iraq's neighbors could advance the country's transition to security and stability.

Stemming from a unique multiyear study and dialogue initiative sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Peace, Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States also looks at the United States' relations with and long-term strategic interests in Iraq. The volume offers recommendations for how the United States also looks at the United States' relations with and long-term strategic interests in Iraq. The volume offers recommendations for how the United States can help Iraq strengthen and grow.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781601270771
  • Publisher: United States Institute of Peace Press (USIP Press)
  • Publication date: 12/28/2011
  • Pages: 300
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Henri J. Barkey is the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor in International Relations and International Relations Department Chair at Lehigh University. He served as a member of the U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff 1998-2000. He has authored, co-authored and edited four books, the most recent being Turkey’s Kurdish Question with Graham Fuller. Most recently he has written "The Endless Pursuit: Improving U.S.-Turkish Relations," in Morton Abramowitz ed. "Friends in Need: Turkey and the United States after September 11, "Cyprus: The Predictable Crisis," The National Interest with Philip H. Gordon, and a forthcoming U.S. Institute of Peace Special Report, "Turkey and Iraq: The Perils and Prospects of Proximity."

Coauthor of Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace USIP Press, 2008, Scott B. Lasensky is a senior program officer at the Institute's Center for Conflict Management and directed USIP's Iraq and Its Neighbors initiative.

Phebe Marr is the author of The Modern History of Iraq and a former senior fellow at USIP 2004-05.

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Table of Contents

Foreword James A. Baker III Lee H. Hamilton ix

Acknowledgments xiii

Maps xv

Introduction Henri J. Barkey Scott B. Lasensky Phebe Marr 1

New Tensions 3

Continuities 5

Collective-Action Dilemma 6

Uncertainty 7

Methodology 8

I The View from Iraq

1 The New Iraq: The Post-2003 Upheavals and Regional Aftershocks Phebe Marr Sam Parker 13

Changes in Post-2003 Iraq 15

Continuities in Post-2003 Iraq 30

Potential Future Trends and Their Impact on Neighbors 35

II The Neighbors

2 A Transformed Relationship: Turkey and Iraq Henri J. Barkey 45

Turkey's Policy toward Iraq and the Kurds, 1958-2009 46

Turkey's New Iraq Policy and Kurdish Initiative: What Changed? 53

Key Agents of Change 62

The Limitations of the New Policy 65

Turkey, Iraq, and the United States: Long-Term Compatibility of Interests 68

3 Iran's Strategies and Objectives in Post-Saddam Iraq Mohsen M. Milani 73

Iran's Tortured Relations with Iraq-1921-2003 75

Iran's Shi'a Card 77

Iran's Fears and Concerns on the Eve of the U.S. Invasion 79

Iran's Iraq Policy: The Two Phases 81

The Irony of Expanding Power through Elections 82

Iran Hedges Its Bets 85

Iran's Sphere of Influence in Southern Iraq 88

Iran's U.S. Strategy on the Battlegrounds of Iraq 90

A Thorn in Iran's Side 92

Conclusion 94

4 Saudi-Iraq Relations: Devolving Chaos or Acrimonious Stability? Toby C. Jones 99

Iran, Iraq, and the Regional Balance of Power 102

Saudi Arabia's Sectarian Pasts and Futures 108

The Security Paradox 111

Sources of Saudi Arabia's Leverage over the United States 114

Conclusion 117

5 Iraq and Its Gulf Arab Neighbors: Avoiding Risk, Seeking Opportunity Judith S. Yaphe 119

Background 121

The Gulf Arabs' Security Vision 125

Strategic Options for the Gulf Arabs 135

The Hard Truths about Gulf Security 139

Conclusion 142

6 Syria and the New Iraq: Between Rivalry and Rapprochement Mona Yacoubian 145

A Relations Roller Coaster 146

A Long History of Animosity and Mistrust 148

Syrian Interests and Threat Perceptions in Iraq 152

Syrian Vectors of Influence in Iraq 160

Compatibility with U.S. Interests 163

7 Coming to Terms: Jordan's Embrace of Post-Saddam Iraq Scott B. Lasensky 165

Jordan's Interests and Threat Perceptions 168

Jordan's Interests: Unchanged and Newfound 174

Compatibility of Jordanian and U. S. Interests-Past, Present, and Future 179

Jordan-Iraqi Relations: Future Sources of Tension 182

Conclusion 185

III Iraq, Arab Politics, and the Regional Order: Lessons Learned

8 The New Iraq and Arab Political Reform: Drawing New Boundaries (and Reinforcing Old Ones) Hesham Sallam 189

Iraq and the Strengthening of Arab Sectarian Divides 191

Iraq and Opposition Alliances in the Arab World 196

Conclusion 205

9 Ties that Bind: The United States, Iraq, and the Neighbors Kenneth M. Pollack 209

What's in It for the United States? 210

An End in Itself or a Means to an End? 212

Diplomacy as Leverage 215

Diplomatic Geometry 217

Protecting the Neighbors from Iraq 223

The Wider Aperture 229

Index 233

Contributors 243

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