Irrational Exuberance Reconsidered: The Cross Section of Stock Returns / Edition 2

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Mathias Külpmann presents a framework to evaluate whether the sk market is in line with underlying fundamentals. The new and revised edition offers an up to date introduction to the controversy between rational asset pricing and behavioural finance. Empirical evidence of sk market overreaction are investigated within the paradigms of rational asset pricing and behavioural finance. Although this monograph will not promise the reader to become a millionaire, it offers a road to obtain a deeper understanding of the forces which drive sk returns. It should be of interest to anyone interested in what drives performance in the sk market.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
From the reviews of the second edition:

"This book provides a highly stimulating contribution to the controversial discussion on sk return predictability, combining theory, thorough empirical analysis and feedback from security analysts." Günter Franke, Professor of International Finance, Chairman of the Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz

"Irrational Exuberance Reconsidered takes a look at current turmoils in the sk market and provides an up to date discussion of the underlying issues." Harris Schlesinger, Professor of Finance and Frank Park Samford Chair of Insurance, University of Alabama

"State of the art analysis and new insights into the interaction between fundamentals and the sk market. Anybody interested in sk market overreaction should have a look." Winfried Pohlmeier, Professor of Economics and Econometrics, Research Professor at the Center of European Economic Research (ZEW)

"Compelling and intriguing: an interesting read for academics and practitioners alike. Current outlook: A strong buy." Dieter Hess, Professor of Finance, Hochschule für Bankwirtschaft, Frankfurt

"Combining academic research with practical experience, this book offers a new concept of a research monograph." Erik Lüders, Professor of Finance, Université Laval, Québec, and Visiting Scholar, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University

"The present monograph investigates the so-called Winner-Loser Effect (WLE) and the questions, whether it may occur in rational pricing theory or is due to irrational behavior … . In my view, this book on finance has impact on the modeling … . Furthermore, the introductory review is from my understanding nice … . each unit within the monograph has an own introduction, outline and summary and can be read independently … . In conclusion, an interesting start for further research." (Andreas Bartel, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1089 (15), 2006)

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9783642057267
  • Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
  • Publication date: 12/7/2010
  • Series: Springer Finance Series
  • Edition description: Softcover reprint of hardcover 2nd ed. 2004
  • Edition number: 2
  • Pages: 230
  • Product dimensions: 0.51 (w) x 9.21 (h) x 6.14 (d)

Table of Contents

I Irrational Exuberance Reconsidered.- 1 Sk Market Overreaction and Portfolio Management — An Interview with Barbara Rega, CFA, and Bernd Meyer, CFA.- 1.1 Fundamental Valuation, Financial Modelling, and the Cross Section of Sk Returns.- 1.2 Equity Risk Premium.- 1.3 Behavioural Finance.- 1.4 Corporate Control.- 1.5 Outlook.- 2 Scope of Analysis.- II Overshooting in the Cross Section of Sk Returns: The Winner-Loser Effect.- 3 Literature.- 3.1 Methodology.- 3.2 Market Efficiency.- 3.3 The Winner-Loser Effect: Explanations.- 3.4 A More Detailed Look at the Literature.- 3.5 Summary.- 4 Empirical Evidence for Germany.- 4.1 The Winner-Loser Hypothesis and the Dataset.- 4.1.1 Hypothesis.- 4.1.2 Dataset.- 4.2 The Standard Approach.- 4.2.1 Evidence for the Pooled Sample.- 4.2.2 Test Methodology.- 4.2.3 Evidence on a Yearly Basis.- 4.2.4 Survivorship Bias.- 4.3 Transition Matrix.- 4.4 Summary.- III Explaining the Cross Section of Sk Returns: CAPM versus Fundamentals.- 5 Explaining the Winner-Loser Effect: Theory.- 5.1 Rational Asset Pricing.- 5.2 Unexpected Changes in Fundamentals and Unexpected Returns.- 5.3 Fundamentals and Rational Asset Pricing.- 5.3.1 Preliminary Remark.- 5.3.2 A Two-Period Framework.- 5.3.3 Expected Excess Returns during the Test Period.- 5.3.4 Excess Returns during the Formation Period.- 5.3.5 Intertemporal Dependence.- 5.3.6 Final Remark and Summary.- 5.4 Summary.- 6 The CAPM and the Winner-Loser Effect.- 6.1 Explaining the Winner-Loser Effect.- 6.1.1 Hypotheses.- 6.1.2 Estimation Results.- 6.1.3 Discussion.- 6.2 Expectation Building.- 6.2.1 Theory.- 6.2.2 Hypothesis and Empirical Results.- 6.2.3 Discussion.- 6.3 Summary.- 7 Fundamentals and the Winner-Loser Effect.- 7.1 Movements in Fundamentals.- 7.1.1 Dividends.- 7.1.2 Profits.- 7.1.3 Profit Components.- 7.1.4 Summary.- 7.2 Differences between the Winner and the Loser Portfolio — A Binary Choice Approach.- 7.2.1 Econometric Methodology.- 7.2.2 Estimation Results.- 7.2.3 Summary.- 7.3 Movements in Fundamentals and Changes in the Exposure to Systematic Risk.- 7.3.1 Hypothesis.- 7.3.2 Results.- 7.3.3 Discussion.- 7.3.4 Summary.- 7.4 Summary.- 8 Fundamentals versus Beta — What Drives Sk Returns?.- 8.1 Fundamentals versus Beta: A Horse Race.- 8.1.1 Hypotheses.- 8.1.2 Estimation Results.- 8.1.3 Summary.- 8.2 Time Horizon and Portfolio Effects, Nonlinearities.- 8.2.1 Hypotheses.- 8.2.2 Estimation Results.- 8.2.3 Discussion.- 8.3 Summary and Outlook.- IV Corporate Control.- 9 Reversals in Sk Returns and Temporary Problems of Corporate Control.- 9.1 Problems of Corporate Control: Hypotheses.- 9.2 Estimation Results.- 9.3 Discussion.- 9.4 Summary.- Conclusion.- References.- Author Index.- About the Author.

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