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This book includes information that is useful for anyone seeking further information on improving his or her judgment and decision making. Throughout, you’ll find numerous hands-on decision exercises and examples from the author's extensive executive training experience that will help you improve the quality of your managerial judgment.
The Anatomy of Decisions.
System 1 and System 2 Thinking.
The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality.
Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics.
An Outline of Things to Come.
Chapter 2: Common Biases.
Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic.
Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic.
Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic.
Integration and Commentary.
Chapter 3: Bounded Awareness.
Focalism and the Focusing Illusion.
Bounded Awareness in Groups.
Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings.
Bounded Awareness in Auctions.
Chapter 4: Framing and the Reversals of Preference.
Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices.
We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty.
The Framing and the Overselling of Insurance.
What's It Worth to You?
The Value We Place on What We Own.
Do No Harm, the Omission Bias, and the Status Quo.
Joint Versus Separate Preference Reversals.
Conclusion and Integration.
Chapter 5: Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making.
When Emotion and Cognition Collide.
Emotional Influences on Decision Making.
Chapter 6: The Escalation of Commitment.
The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm.
The Competitive Escalation Paradigm.
Why Does Escalation Occur?
Chapter 7: Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making.
Perceptions of Fairness.
Chapter 8: Common Investment Mistakes.
The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions.
Chapter 9: Making Rational Decisions in Negotiation.
A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations.
Claiming Value in Negotiation.
Creating Value in Negotiation.
The Tools of Value Creation.
Summary and Critique.
Chapter 10: Negotiator Cognition.
The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiations.
The Framing of Negotiator Judgment.
Escalation of Conflict.
Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation.
Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation.
Anchoring in Negotiations.
Chapter 11: Improving Decision Making.
Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools.
Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise.
Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment.
Strategy 4: Reason Analogically.
Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View.
Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others.
Posted January 2, 2010
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