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More About This Textbook
Overview
What People Are Saying
From the Publisher
“The book is a modern take on decision making. The innovativescope will inspire instructors by encouraging them to include acombination rather than a subset of decision-theoretic,statistical, behavioral, and philosophical concepts in theircourses."—Marzena J. Rostek, University of Wisconsin
“Written by a leading authority and teacher in the area ofdecision theory, this is a terrific combinedtextbook–handbook for students and practitioners ofmanagement. Indeed, it is a terrific book for everyone interestedin ‘making better decisions.’"
—Adam Brandenburger, New York University
“This book is extremely effective for anyone who wants toacquire quick, basic understanding of old and new concepts ofdecision theory, with a minimum level of technicaldetails.”
—Ehud Kalai, Northwestern University
"Gilboa is one of the leaders of the revolution that has sweptthrough the field of decision theory in the past few decades, inwhich mathematical methods of statistics and economics have beenintegrated with findings from modern psychology. In this book heprovides an accessible and practical survey of the state of theart, which encourages readers to reflect on – and try tosharpen – their intuitions and habits of decisionmaking. It would make an excellent primary or supplementarytext for an undergraduate- or masters-level course in decisiontheory. It should also be useful and enjoyable reading for anyonewho wants to learn about concepts that can be used and mistakesthat should be avoided when taking calculated risks."
—Robert Nau, Duke University
"Itzhak Gilboa is one of the deepest thinkers in modern decisiontheory. In this fascinating and wonderfully written book he usesthe fundamental models of decision making as a basis for reflectionupon several systematic patterns revealed by our everyday choices.He strikes a nice balance between analytical models, psychologicalinsights, and pragmatism with the end goals of improving ourdecision making and better understanding the decisions ofothers."
—Tomasz Strzalecki, Harvard University
Product Details
Meet the Author
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments.
1. Background.
Suggested Reading.
2. Judgment and Choice Biases.
Introduction.
Problems – Group A.
Problems – Group B.
Framing Effects.
Brainstorming and Formal Models.
Endowment Effect.
Sunk Costs.
Decision Trees.
Representativeness Heuristic.
Availability Heuristic.
Anchoring.
Mental Accounting.
Dynamic Inconsistency
Exercises.
3. Consuming Statistical Data.
Introduction.
Problems.
Conditional Probabilities.
Gambler’s Fallacy.
Biased Samples.
Regression to the Mean.
Correlation and Causation.
Statistical Significance.
Bayesian and Classical Statistics.
Exercises.
4. Decisions under Risk.
Introduction.
Problems.
The Independence Axiom.
Von Neumann and Morgenstern’s Result.
Measurement of Utility.
Risk Aversion.
Prospect Theory.
Exercises.
5. Decisions under Uncertainty.
Introduction.
Problems.
Subjective Probability.
Learning From the Fact We Know.
Causality.
The Sure Thing Principle.
Alternative Models.
Objective Probabilities.
Exercises.
6. Well-Being and Happiness.
Introduction.
Problems – Group A.
Problems – Group B.
Well-Being.
Measurement Issues.
What’s Happiness?
Exercises.
Appendix A: Optimal Choice.
Appendix B: Probability and Statistics.
Solutions.
Index.