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“This time it’s different” are the four most expensive words in the English language (according to investing legend Sir John Templeton). Yet many investors routinely fall into ...
“This time it’s different” are the four most expensive words in the English language (according to investing legend Sir John Templeton). Yet many investors routinely fall into the trap of thinking “now” (whenever “now” is) is different somehow. In Markets Never Forget (But People Do): How Your Memory Is Costing You Money — and Why This Time Isn’t Different, four-time New York Times bestselling author Ken Fisher shows readers how their memories play (often costly) tricks on them—and how they can combat their faulty memories with just a bit of history.
This isn’t to say history repeats itself perfectly. It doesn’t — but a recession is a recession. Some are vastly worse than others — but investors have lived through them before. Credit crises aren’t new, nor are bear markets — or bull markets. Geopolitical tension is as old as mankind, as is war and even terrorist attacks. Understanding how investors have reacted to similar past events can help guide investors in shaping better forward-looking expectations. The past never predicts the future, but it can reduce guesswork about what’s ahead.
In this book, Fisher takes aim at some major market memory mishaps — like the idea stocks have become inherently more volatile or that wildly above- or below-average returns are abnormal. He shows how, early in every recovery, investors don’t believe in it — often at a huge cost. And he shows how, in investing, ideology is deadly. Most important, he teaches how you can use history as one powerful tool to help begin reducing your error rate and help begin getting better investing results.
Chapter 1 The Plain-Old Normal
Yes Sir, Sir John
The Normal Normal
The Jobless Recovery
The Always Feared, Rarely Seen Double-Dip
Chapter 2 Fooled By Averages
Bull Markets Are Inherently Above Average
Viva the V
Normal Returns Are Extreme, Not Average
The Pause That Refreshes (And Confuses)
Getting Average Returns Is Hard—Really Hard
Chapter 3 Volatility Is Normal—and Volatile
What the Heck Is Volatility
Volatility Is Volatile
The Daily Grind
Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds?
Economic Volatility—Also Normal
Volatility Isn't Bad, It's Good!
Never a Dull Moment
Chapter 4 Secular Bear? (Secular) Bull!
Seeing the World Through Bear-Colored Glasses
Two Secular Bear Markets?
Stocks—Up Vastly More Than Down
Chapter 5 Debt and Deficient Thinking
Deficits Aren't Bad, But Surpluses Will Kill You
The History of Big Government Debt
Just Who Is at Default Here?
Chapter 6 Long-Term Love and Other Investing Errors
No One Category Is Best for All Time
Long-Term Love Is Like Long-term Forecasting—Both Wrong
It's Still Heat Chasing Even When It Seems “safe”
Use History to Your Advantage
Chapter 7 Poli-Ticking
Enter the Ideology-Free Zone
Your Party Isn't Better
Presidents and Risk Aversion
Perverse Inverse—It's Four and One
Poli-Tics Go Global
Poli-tics Versus Entrepreneurs
Chapter 8 It's (Always Been) a Global World After All
It's Always Been a Small World
Seeing the World Right
There's No Place Like Kansas
Posted August 30, 2013
Another well-written book by Ken Fisher, an investing superstar! He teaches you how to use history to separate investing fact from fiction. I would buy every book he writes.Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.
Posted January 17, 2012
Deep analysys in common and not that common memory shortcomings, stressing the importance of prior researching to minimize costly investment decissions. A Must Reading For Every Level Of Investor!!Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.