Meteorology at the Millennium / Edition 1

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Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines.

Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come.

The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets.

This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

Audience: Graduate and research climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, academic libraries.

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Editorial Reviews

From The Critics
Two dozen papers from a July 2000 conference held at Cambridge to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the Royal Meteorological Society report on weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, the atmosphere and oceans, the biogeochemical system, the solar system, and palaeoclimate. Among specific topics are a historical perspective on extratropical cyclones, predicting and detecting anthropogenic climate change, the monsoon as a self- regulating coupled ocean-atmosphere system, biochemical connections between the atmosphere and the ocean, and atmospheric dynamics of the outer planets. Color illustrations appear here and there throughout. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780125480352
  • Publisher: Elsevier Science & Technology Books
  • Publication date: 10/1/2001
  • Series: International Geophysics
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 333

Table of Contents

Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Contributors xv
Part 1. Weather Prediction at the Millennium
Predicting Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Forecasts
A. Introduction 3
B. The Liouville Equation 3
C. The Probability Density Function of Model Error 5
D. Probability Forecasting by Ensemble Prediction 7
E. Verifying Probability Forecasts 10
F. The Economic Value of Probability Forecasts 11
G. Concluding Remarks 12
References 12
Extratropical Cyclones An Historical Perspective
A. Introduction 14
B. The Thermal Theory 14
C. The Bergen School 15
D. Baroclinic Instability Model 17
E. Potential Vorticity Ideas 18
F. Predictability, Forecasting and Observations 20
G. The Future 21
References 22
Numerical Methods for Atmospheric General Circulation Models Refinements or Fundamental Advances?
A. Numerical Weather Prediction 23
B. Climate Models 24
C. Nwp Versus Climate Modelling 25
D. Future Evolution of Numerics 26
References 27
Mesoscale Mountains and the Larger-scale Atmospheric Dynamics A Review
A. Introduction 29
B. Regime Diagram for Flow Past Topography 30
C. Interactions With the Balanced Larger-Scale Dynamics 34
D. Numerical Simulations of Alpine Wakes 37
E. Outlook 39
References 41
The Upscale Turbulent Cascade Shear Layers, Cyclones and Gas Giant Bands
A. Introduction 43
B. Pairing in Unstratified Shear Flow 44
C. Pairing in Rotating Stratified Flow: Subsynoptic Baroclinic Instability 48
D. Pairing in Vortex Dynamics on the Sphere: Rossby-Wave Arrest of the Upscale Cascade and the "Parity" of Gas Giant Bands 51
E. Conclusions 59
References 60
The Role of Water in Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate
A. Historical Overview 62
B. Water in Atmospheric Dynamics 64
C. Water in the Climate System 69
D. Summary 70
References 71
New Observational Technologies Scientific and Societal Impacts
A. Introduction 72
B. Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere 72
C. Remote Sensors and Their Scientific Impacts 73
D. Societal Impacts 80
E. Conclusions 81
References 82
Turning Dynamical Ideas into Forecast Practice A Proposal for a Renewed Graphical Summary of the Synoptic Scale Situation
A. Introduction 83
B. The Existing Graphical Summary Map: Its Importance and Its Problems 84
C. Historical Perspective 86
D. Rationale of A Dynamically Grounded Synoptic Summary 88
E. Examples of Use of the New Graphical Framework 90
F. Potential for Upgrading 98
G. Conclusion 101
Appendix The Graphical Code of Anasyg and Presyg 102
References 104
Weather Forecasting From Wolly Art to Solid Science
A. The Prehistory of Scientific Forecasting 106
B. The Beginning of Modern Numerical Weather Prediction 110
C. Numerical Weather Prediction Today 113
D. Conclusions 116
References 118
Part 2. Climate Variability and Change
Problems in Quantifying Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Earth's Energy Balance
A. Introduction 123
B. Estimates of the Global-Mean Radiative Forcing 124
C. Time Variation of Radiative Forcing 126
D. Developments in Studies of the Indirect Aerosol Effect 129
E. Concluding Remarks 130
References 131
Changes in Climate and Variability over the Last 1000 Years
A. Introduction 133
B. The Instrumental Period (1850-) 133
C. Early European Instrumental Records 137
D. The Pre-Instrumental Period (Back to 1000) 137
E. Discussion and Conclusions 140
References 141
Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic
A. Introduction 143
B. What is the North Atlantic Oscillation and How Does It Impact Regional Climate? 143
C. What are the Mechanisms That Govern North Atlantic Oscillation Variability? 144
D. Concluding Comments on the Other Aspects of North Atlantic Climate Variability 149
References 150
Prediction and Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change
A. Introduction 152
B. An Early General Circulation Model Simulation of the Climatic Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 152
C. A Recent Simulation of the Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 153
D. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change 158
E. Some Concluding Remarks 162
References 163
Absorption of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere Reconciling Models with Measurements
A. Introduction 165
B. The Global Radiation Balance 165
C. Satellite Measurements 166
D. Absorption by the Surface 168
E. Absorption by the Atmosphere 168
F. Discussion 172
References 172
The Impact of Satellite Observations of the Earth's Spectrum on Climate Research
A. The Climate Change Detection and Attribution Problem 174
B. Satellite Spectral Signatures of Climate Change 175
C. Recent Work on Spectral Signatures 176
D. Iris and Img: Change of Olr (v) Between 1970 and 1997 177
E. Analysis of Img and Iris Data 178
F. Summary 181
References 182
Part 3. The Atmosphere and Oceans
Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction Revisited
A. Introduction 185
B. Data and Models 186
C. The Analysis Method 187
D. Atmospheric Forcing of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures 188
E. North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 190
F. Potential Seasonal Predictability Based on the Atmosphere General Circulation Model 194
G. Conclusions and Discussion 195
References 197
The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System
A. Introduction 198
B. Regulation of the Monsoon Annual Cycle 201
C. Interannual Variability of the Monsoon 206
D. General Theory of Regulation of the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Monsoon System 214
E. Conclusions 214
References 217
Laminar Flow in the Ocean Ekman Layer
A. Introduction 220
B. The Effect of a Stable Density Gradient 220
C. The Fatal Flaw 221
D. Flow Visualization 222
E. The Discovery of Laminar Flow 222
F. Fine Structure 222
G. Wave-Induced Shear Instability 222
H. Billow Turbulence 223
I. Reverse Transition 224
J. Revised Paradigm 224
K. One-Dimensional Modelling of the Upper Ocean 224
L. Diurnal Variation 225
M. Buoyant Convection 225
N. Billow Turbulence in the Diurnal Thermocline 225
O. Consequences for the Ekman Current Profile 225
P. Solar Radiation 226
Q. Applications 226
R. Discussion 231
S. Conclusion 231
References 231
Ocean Observations and the Climate Forecast Problem
A. Introduction 233
B. Some History: Observational and Theoretical 233
C. The Perception 234
D. The Reality 238
E. Conclusions Based Upon Misapprehensions 242
F. Where Do We Go from Here? 243
References 245
Part 4. The Biogeochemical System
Biochemical Connections Between the Atmosphere and the Ocean
A. Introduction 249
B. The Chemical Composition of the Earth's Atmosphere 250
C. Air-Sea Exchange of Gases of Importance 250
C. Impact of Atmospheric Dust on Ocean Biochemistry 253
D. Global Perspectives on Biogeochemical Fluxes Across the Air-Sea Interface 256
References 257
Modelling Vegetation and the Carbon Cycle as Interactive Elements of the Climate system
A. Introduction 259
B. Model Description 260
C. Pre-Industrial State 264
D. A First Transient Climate-Carbon Cycle Simulation 268
E. Discussion 272
F. Conclusions 276
References 277
Part 5. Middle Atmosphere and Solar Physics: Other Planets and Epochs
Some Fundamental Aspects of Atmospheric Dynamics, with a Solar Spinoff
A. Introduction 283
B. Thermal and Chemical Evidence 284
C. Wave-Induced Momentum Transport: Some Simple Examples 287
D. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) 289
E. The Michelson-Morley Principle 291
F. The Nonacceleration Constraint 291
G. Extratropical Latitudes 291
H. Gyroscopic Pumping 292
I. Rossby- and Gravity-Wave Breaking 294
J. The Jigsaw Puzzle: Barotropic Models 295
K. Generalization to Realistic Stratified Flow 299
L. The Sun's Radiative Interior 299
References 303
Atmospheric Dynamics of the Outer Planets
A. Introduction 306
B. Voyager Observations of Winds and Temperatures 306
C. Models of Vortices in Shear 308
D. Galileo Probe and Vertical Structure 309
E. Galileo Orbiter Observations of Water and Lightning 312
References 315
Palaeoclimate Studies at the Millennium The Role of the Coupled System
A. Introduction 316
B. Pre-Quaternary Palaeoclimates 316
C. Quaternary Palaeoclimates 318
D. Suborbital Timescale Variability 323
E. Conclusions 323
References 324
Index 327
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