Modelling Our Future

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The issues associated with population ageing are already assuming prominence in most OECD countries. Many governments are extremely concerned about the likely impact of population ageing upon future government outlays and economic growth. In Australia, for example, there have already been two major government reports that have attempted to quantify the likely implications for government spending of population ageing. These reports have concluded that there will either have to be cuts in current government programs, increases in taxes or some combination of these. The ageing population will also require more health human resources (doctors, nurses, pharmacists etc.), in an environment where the existing workforce itself is ageing. Economic growth is forecast to slow significantly in future decades due to population ageing, reducing government's ability to rely on a rapidly growing taxpaying labour force to finance the expected shortfalls.

Against this backdrop, volumes 15 and 16 of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Series provide very timely and relevant research for policy makers and researchers across the world. The modelling approaches and research described in the volumes are at the international leading edge, providing insights into how different countries are facing the challenges associated with population ageing. Many countries have developed microsimulation and other models to help them evaluate the impacts of population ageing and of public policy change. Volume 15 concentrates upon the impacts of population ageing upon social security and taxation. For example, the chapters examine likely future pension outlays under current andpossible alternative schemes; estimate the likely wealth of future retirees; forecast tax revenues out to 2026 and look at the impact of population ageing upon housing prices and tourism.

*Contains invaluable information that aims to help shape the current and future public policy debates in this area
*The authors are established leaders in the field
*International in Scope
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Product Details

Table of Contents

About the Editors     xi
Notes on Contributors     xiii
Foreword     xix
Preface     xxi
Introduction and Overview   Ann Harding   Anil Gupta     1
Pension Analysis Using Dynamic Microsimulation
Can We Afford the Future? An Evaluation of the New Swedish Pension System   Lennart Flood     33
A Microsimulation Model of Private Sector Pensions in France   Thierry Debrand   Sophie Pennec   Anne-Gisele Privat     55
Effects of Demographic Developments, Labour Supply and Pension Reforms on the Future Pension Burden in Norway   Dennis Fredriksen   Nils Martin Stolen     81
Macroeconomic Effects of Proposed Pension Reforms in Norway   Dennis Fredriksen   Kim Massey Heide   Erling Holmoy   Ingeborg Foldoy Solli     107
Adding Private Pensions to the Canadian DYNACAN Model   Richard J. Morrison     143
Post-Secondary Education and Training Participation Rates in Australia in the Next 30 Years: A Microsimulation Approach   Sandra Roussel     171
Taxes, Benefits and Labour Supply
Lifetime Redistribution Through Taxes, Transfers and Non-Cash Benefits   Thomas Pettersson   Tomas Pettersson     205
Income Distribution andRedistribution in a Medium-Term Perspective in Denmark   Frederik Hansen     233
Population Ageing and Fiscal Sustainability: Integrating Detailed Labour Supply Models with CGE Models   Rolf Aaberge   Ugo Colombino   Erling Holmoy   Birger Strom   Tom Wennemo     259
Canadian Retirement Behaviour: A Microeconomic Examination   Greg Maloney   Mashood Mirza   Francois Paris     291
STINMOD: Use of a Static Microsimulation Model in the Policy Process in Australia   Rachel Lloyd     315
The Impact of Canadian Population Ageing on Federal Personal Income Tax: Microsimulation Results from 2000 to 2026   Weng-Fong Lu   Wei Li   Earl Bailey     335
Basic Income or Vital Minimum? A Note on the Distributive Effects of Possible Reforms of the Spanish Income Tax   Xisco Oliver   Amedeo Spadaro     361
Wealth and Services
Self Provision in Retirement? Forecasting Future Household Wealth in Australia   Simon Kelly     387
Household Net Wealth in New Zealand: Implications for Retirement Incomes   Grant M. Scobie   John Gibson     407
Population Ageing, Housing Demand and House Prices in Australia: A Microsimulation Analysis   Ross S. Guest     435
Population Ageing and State Concessions Policy   Karen Piper   Don Siemon     459
Future Service Provision at the Local Level: Demographic Modelling and Forecasting in the City of Bayside   Simon Byth     483
Characteristics and Travel Patterns of Older Australians: Impact of Population Ageing on Tourism   Afzal Hossain   Geoff Bailey   Milly Lubulwa     501
Index     523
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