Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad [NOOK Book]

Overview


Leading consultant and Minyanville contributor Peter Atwater has helped institutional investors, corporations and policymakers map changing social moods to emerging market shifts, and use that knowledge to identify huge new market opportunities. Now, Atwater shows you how to use the same powerful Horizon PreferenceTM approach to select your own high-performance investments. Utilizing what is often in plain sight, but overlooked and underestimated, Horizon Preference helps you understand how we narrow our ...

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Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad

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Overview


Leading consultant and Minyanville contributor Peter Atwater has helped institutional investors, corporations and policymakers map changing social moods to emerging market shifts, and use that knowledge to identify huge new market opportunities. Now, Atwater shows you how to use the same powerful Horizon PreferenceTM approach to select your own high-performance investments. Utilizing what is often in plain sight, but overlooked and underestimated, Horizon Preference helps you understand how we narrow our physical, time and relationship horizons to the "local" in bad times, and widen them to the "global" in better times – and then translate that knowledge into better investment decisions. Atwater’s Moods and Markets offers powerful new insights into everything from market bubbles to the real challenges of making mergers work… why "farm to table" and "locavore" movements are booming now, and what’s likely to happen next… why Americans now want to rent homes even though it’s become far more affordable to buy them… why the "Arab Spring" is bullish, and higher education is in deep trouble… which businesses prosper in a downturn, which prosper most in an upturn – and why. This book will be an invaluable resource for every serious investor, trader, and money manager.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780132947244
  • Publisher: Pearson Education
  • Publication date: 7/20/2012
  • Series: Minyanville Media
  • Sold by: Barnes & Noble
  • Format: eBook
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 208
  • File size: 4 MB

Meet the Author

PETER W. ATWATER is President of Financial Insyghts, a consulting firm providing advice to investors, corporations and policymakers on how social mood affects decision making and the markets. Formerly a pioneer in securitization, and long-time financial services executive (including CEO of Bank One Private Client Services under Jamie Dimon), today, Peter brings his innovative social mood-based thinking to the world of investing.

A regular contributor to Minyanville, Peter’s work has been featured in Time Magazine and the Financial Times and The Socionomist.

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Table of Contents

Foreword xix

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Understanding Social Mood 11

Mood Defined 12

Mood Versus Emotion 14

Confidence and Our Perceptions of Certainty 15

The Continuum of Social Mood 20

Individual Versus Social Mood 24

Measuring Mood 25

Social Mood and the Media 28

Mood Groups 31

Final Thoughts 32

Chapter 2 Horizon Preference: How Mood Affects Our Decision Making 33

The Horizon Preference Continuum 35

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Rising Social Mood 39

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Falling Social Mood 45

Opportunities During Declining Social Mood 50

Final Thoughts 52

Chapter 3 Market Peaks and All the Red Flags They Wave 55

The Concept Stock Bubble 56

Big Truths 58

Abdication of Risk Management 59

Organizational Complexity 61

Novice and Naïve Entrants 62

Credit, Architecture, and Other Signs of the Top 63

Why Investment Peaks Are Different 68

After the Peak 70

Final Thoughts 71

Chapter 4 A Social Mood Journey Back Through the Housing Bubble 73

Modern Housing Finance 75

A Big Truth 78

Abdication of Risk Management 78

Organizational Complexity 80

Novice and Naïve Entrants 82

Excessive Credit and Architecture 83

Final Thoughts 84

Chapter 5 Is Higher Education a Bubble? 85

A Big Truth 85

Abdication of Risk Management 88

Organizational Complexity 91

Naïve and Novice Participants 91

Excessive Credit 92

Architecture 93

Final Thoughts 95

Chapter 6 Signs of a Bottom in Social Mood 99

Extreme “Me, Here, Now” Behaviors 100

Hoarding Behaviors 101

Acts of Sacrifice 104

Event Versus Cycle Lows 108

The Market Low of 2002 109

The Market Low of March 2009 110

The Market Bottom of 1932 112

Seeing Major Market Bottoms in Real Time 113

Social Mood and Invention 115

Final Thoughts 120

Chapter 7 Cooking the Books: Corporate Earnings and Social Mood 121

Mood-Driven Accounting Principles 122

Mood-Driven Management Judgment 125

Mood-Driven “One Time” Charges 130

Final Thoughts 133

Chapter 8 Social Mood and the Markets Today: So Where Are We? 135

Modern Day Extremes in Social Mood 139

Communication and Transportation Innovations and Peaks in Social Mood 141

2000 to 2012: Deteriorating Mood 142

Plotting Social Mood 145

A Long-Term Perspective on Social Mood and Stock Multiples 148

Social Mood and the Evolution of Major Corporations 150

Peak Social Mood and Sovereign Debt 154

Final Thoughts 156

Chapter 9 Using Horizon Preference No Matter Your Long-Term View 159

Final Thoughts 166

Chapter 10 Final Thoughts 169

Bibliography 171

Index 175

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