NATO's Further Enlargement: Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping / Edition 1

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In the 1990s, NATO began a course of enlargement and transformation to remain relevant in Europe's post Cold War security environment. As part of its commitment to enlargement, it admitted three new members—Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in 1999 and has plans to admit more countries in the future. NATO's enlargement has profound military implications for the U. S. and its allies in terms of future planning and shaping strategies. Both have been driven primarily by political imperatives, not by a sense of direct threat, but by an environment-shaping agenda of democratization and integration. This report develops and applies an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future NATO enlargement, the specific defense challenges they pose, and shaping policies that might aid in addressing these challenges.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833029614
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Publication date: 6/12/2001
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 165
  • Lexile: 1630L (what's this?)
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.50 (d)

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NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015

Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping
By Thomas S. Szayna

Rand Corporation

Copyright © 2001 Thomas S. Szayna
All right reserved.

ISBN: 9780833029614


In January 1994, NATO committed itself to a gradual process of enlargement, and in 1999, it admitted three new members-Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. A further enlargement decision is scheduled for 2002, with a new member (or members) possibly joining NATO in 2004. Over the next 15 years, as many as three decisions could be made on further enlargement. These decisions and the overall course of enlargement will pose many far-reaching strategic and military challenges for NATO policymakers. Which countries are likely to be admitted, and when? What is the status of the armed forces of potential member countries? What impact will the accession of new members have on NATO's main missions?

This report develops and applies an analytical framework to evaluate potential members' relative readiness for and likelihood of admission to NATO. The framework takes into account political, strategic, and military criteria. The purpose of the analysis is to inform decision-making by the United States Air Force, the United States European Command (EUCOM), and EUCOM component commands regarding shaping actions (with a particular emphasis on air-power) toward the aspiring members.

The research presented here is part of a larger project on the changing strategic environment in and around Europe and its implications for the United States and NATO. Sponsored by the Commander, United States Air Forces in Europe, and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, Headquarters, United States Air Force, the project was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND's Project AIR FORCE.

This report should be of interest to those engaged in policymaking regarding European security. Its specific military focus is on air forces, but its discussion of the defense planning implications of the enlargement process and the engagement and shaping recommendations is also relevant to other dimensions of military power.

For comments and further information, please contact the author:


Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of RAND, is the United States Air Force's federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air and space forces. Research is carried out in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.


Excerpted from NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015 by Thomas S. Szayna Copyright © 2001 by Thomas S. Szayna. Excerpted by permission.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.
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Table of Contents

Ch. 1 Introduction 1
Ch. 2 The Planning Context 5
Ch. 3 Patterns in the Enlargement Process 41
Ch. 4 Assessing Candidates for Future Accession to NATO 49
Ch. 5 Shaping the Forces of Aspiring Members 107
Ch. 6 Conclusions 131
App Inventory of Aircraft and Helicopters in the MAP States 147
References 155
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