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In the 1990s, NATO began a course of enlargement and transformation to remain relevant in Europe's post Cold War security environment. As part of its commitment to enlargement, it admitted three new members—Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in 1999 and has plans to admit more countries in the future. NATO's enlargement has profound military implications for the U. S. and its allies in terms of future planning and shaping strategies. Both have been driven primarily by political imperatives, not by a sense of direct threat, but by an environment-shaping agenda of democratization and integration. This report develops and applies an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future NATO enlargement, the specific defense challenges they pose, and shaping policies that might aid in addressing these challenges.
This report develops and applies an analytical framework to evaluate potential members' relative readiness for and likelihood of admission to NATO. The framework takes into account political, strategic, and military criteria. The purpose of the analysis is to inform decision-making by the United States Air Force, the United States European Command (EUCOM), and EUCOM component commands regarding shaping actions (with a particular emphasis on air-power) toward the aspiring members.
The research presented here is part of a larger project on the changing strategic environment in and around Europe and its implications for the United States and NATO. Sponsored by the Commander, United States Air Forces in Europe, and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, Headquarters, United States Air Force, the project was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND's Project AIR FORCE.
This report should be of interest to those engaged in policymaking regarding European security. Its specific military focus is on air forces, but its discussion of the defense planning implications of the enlargement process and the engagement and shaping recommendations is also relevant to other dimensions of military power.
For comments and further information, please contact the author: Tom_Szayna@rand.org
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of RAND, is the United States Air Force's federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air and space forces. Research is carried out in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Excerpted from NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015 by Thomas S. Szayna Copyright © 2001 by Thomas S. Szayna. Excerpted by permission.
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|Ch. 2||The Planning Context||5|
|Ch. 3||Patterns in the Enlargement Process||41|
|Ch. 4||Assessing Candidates for Future Accession to NATO||49|
|Ch. 5||Shaping the Forces of Aspiring Members||107|
|App||Inventory of Aircraft and Helicopters in the MAP States||147|