The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on 25 Years of the Hypothesis

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The natural rate of unemployment hypothesis proposed in the 1960s has dominated thought about the causes of, and possible solutions to, unemployment. It asserts that only supply-side measures can achieve sustainable reductions in unemployment. In the 1980s, however, European unemployment rates rose sharply, despite supply-side innovations to economic policy inspired by the hypothesis. These essays reflect retrospectively on the state of the hypothesis and look forward to the emergence of a new wisdom regarding unemployment.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
" The 17 essays in this volume discuss the theoretical foundations, dynamics, empirical status, and political economy of the natural rate hypothesis. They reflect the vigor with which we might expect both proponents and critics to discuss a concept of such central importance. Cross should be applauded for the breadth of his perspective on the natural rate. He has marshalled a wide variety of papers into a volume that is particularly good at highlighting recent advances and which, ultimately, no macroeconomist will want to be without." Mark Setterfield, Eastern Economic Journal
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780521483308
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • Publication date: 4/28/1995
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 400
  • Product dimensions: 5.98 (w) x 8.98 (h) x 0.91 (d)

Table of Contents

1. Introduction Rod Cross; Part I. The Theoretical Framework: 2. The origins and further development of the natural rate of unemployment Edmund Phelps; 3. The natural rate as new classical macroeconomics James Tobin; 4. Theoretical reflections on the 'natural rate of unemployment' Frank Hahn; 5. Of coconuts, decomposition and a jackass: the genealogy of the natural rate Huw Dixon; Part II. Adjustment, Ranges of Equilibria and Hysteresis: 6. The economics of adjustment Andrew Caplin and John Leahy; 7. Hysteresis and memory in the labour market G. C. Archibald; 8. Models of the range of equilibria Ian McDonald; 9. Hysteresis revisited: a methodological approach Bruno Amable, Jérome Henry, Frédéric Lordon and Richard Topol; 10. Is the natural rate hypothesis consistent with hysteresis? Rod Cross; Part III. Empirical Tests and Macro Models: 11. The natural rate hypothesis and its testable implications Hashem Pesaran and Ron Smith; 12. Non-linear dependence in unemployment, output and inflation: empirical evidence for the UK David Peel and Alan Speight; 13. Prices, wages and unemployment in the US economy: a traditional model and tests of some alternatives Albert Ando and Flint Brayton; 14. The natural rate in empirical macroeconomic models Simon Wren-Lewis; Part IV. Political Economy: 15. Is the natural rate of unemployment a useful concept for Europe? Maria Demertzis and Andrew Hughes Hallett; 16. The natural rate of unemployment: a fundamentalist Keynesian view Meghnad Desai; 17. Politics and the natural rate hypothesis: a historical perspective Bernard Corry.

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